Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce costs remain elevated, with roma tomatoes surpassing $40 and iceberg lettuce continuing to climb past earlier highs. Onion prices are also at peak levels, particularly for red and white varieties. Outlook: Relief may begin mid-May as new supply comes online, but near-term pricing will stay elevated. Flexibility on menus will be key.   Grains Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after more than a month of flat activity, largely driven by soybean oil strength. Outlook: Momentum feels uncertain. Without new demand drivers, expect continued volatility rather than sustained increases.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with butter slipping slightly and now trading below cheese—a shift not consistently seen since 2021. Cheese markets are stabilizing as global pricing begins to rebalance. Outlook: Butter may be nearing a floor, but strong production and softer demand will likely keep prices from climbing

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes are holding high, while iceberg lettuce is spiking again due to supply gaps during the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility is being driven by white onions, though the spike is expected to be short-lived. Weather disruptions and uneven regional supply are continuing to drive short-term price swings across key items. Outlook: Lettuce is the key watch item with more upside risk before stabilizing. Onion markets should normalize soon, offering some relief in the near term.   Grains Wheat remains the headline mover as drought conditions intensify in key growing regions, despite some expected rainfall. Soybeans were quieter after recent volatility, but the broader grain complex trended positive. Drought severity is increasing in already-impacted areas, adding pressure to yield expectations. Outlook: Wheat prices could stay elevated in the near term due to worsening drought conditions. Longer term, weaker export demand may start to ease pressure.