Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Tomatoes are holding high, while iceberg lettuce is spiking again due to supply gaps during the Yuma-to-Salinas transition. Onion volatility is being driven by white onions, though the spike is expected to be short-lived. Weather disruptions and uneven regional supply are continuing to drive short-term price swings across key items.
Outlook: Lettuce is the key watch item with more upside risk before stabilizing. Onion markets should normalize soon, offering some relief in the near term.
Grains
Wheat remains the headline mover as drought conditions intensify in key growing regions, despite some expected rainfall. Soybeans were quieter after recent volatility, but the broader grain complex trended positive. Drought severity is increasing in already-impacted areas, adding pressure to yield expectations.
Outlook: Wheat prices could stay elevated in the near term due to worsening drought conditions. Longer term, weaker export demand may start to ease pressure.
Dairy
Cheese and nonfat dry milk moved higher last week, while butter and whey softened. Milk production is increasing seasonally, supported by a growing herd, which is helping keep supply balanced. Expanding herd size is creating a structural cushion that’s limiting aggressive price movement.
Outlook: Expanded milk supply should help cap major price increases, keeping dairy relatively stable. Watch for potential softening in export-driven categories like cheese.
Beef
Beef output ticked higher late in the week but remains well below last year due to tight cattle supplies, with production down over 5% year-to-date. Cutout values moved higher, especially for briskets and flanks, while lean trim continues to feel pressure from limited cow supply. Reduced cow and bull slaughter is tightening availability for ground beef inputs across the supply chain.
Outlook: Tight supply will continue to support beef prices, particularly for ground beef inputs. Relief isn’t likely near-term, especially as herd rebuilding limits available cattle.
Pork
Pork production dipped slightly week over week but remains above last year, with cutout values rising behind strength in butts and ribs. Bellies hit a 10-week low, creating a potential short-term value opportunity. Lower sow slaughter is signaling herd rebuilding, which could shift supply dynamics later this year.
Outlook: Near-term pricing should stay manageable, with some promotional opportunities on bellies. Longer term, reduced sow slaughter points to improved supply later this year.
Poultry
Chicken production continues to climb, now running over 3% above last year, which is keeping most chicken markets under pressure. Wings and boneless breasts led declines, while eggs remain historically low but carry upside risk due to incomplete flock recovery. Strong chick placements and a growing broiler flock are reinforcing expectations for steady supply through the summer.
Outlook: Chicken should remain a strong value heading into summer with ample supply. Expect stable-to-lower pricing overall, but keep an eye on eggs and wings where risk is tilted upward.
Seafood
Tilapia prices rebounded in February after hitting seasonal lows, continuing a pattern of sharp monthly swings. The market remains highly volatile, with prices bouncing within a wide range. Seasonal trends suggest prices typically climb into spring before easing back.
Outlook: Expect continued short-term volatility, with prices likely peaking in spring before trending downward again into summer.