Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Produce costs remain elevated, with roma tomatoes surpassing $40 and iceberg lettuce continuing to climb past earlier highs. Onion prices are also at peak levels, particularly for red and white varieties.
Outlook: Relief may begin mid-May as new supply comes online, but near-term pricing will stay elevated. Flexibility on menus will be key.
Grains
Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after more than a month of flat activity, largely driven by soybean oil strength.
Outlook: Momentum feels uncertain. Without new demand drivers, expect continued volatility rather than sustained increases.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed, with butter slipping slightly and now trading below cheese—a shift not consistently seen since 2021. Cheese markets are stabilizing as global pricing begins to rebalance.
Outlook: Butter may be nearing a floor, but strong production and softer demand will likely keep prices from climbing significantly.
Beef
Beef production improved again last week, rising 1% week-over-week, while trim prices hit record-high weekly averages. At the same time, premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, showing clear signs of customer trade-down.
Outlook: Volatility continues. Watch for buying opportunities if cattle markets pull back, but longer-term supply constraints will keep pressure on pricing.
Pork
Pork production dipped slightly, down 0.9% week-over-week, while overall pricing softened, led by declines in hams and bellies. Bacon pricing followed suit, with April belly prices dropping 7% from March.
Outlook: Seasonality is coming into play. Pork prices, especially bellies, typically climb into summer, so current softness likely won’t stick.
Poultry
Chicken supply remains strong, with production up 3.3% year-over-year, continuing to pressure pricing on breasts and tenders while wings stay historically low. Egg prices have dropped dramatically, falling from a peak of $8.50/dozen last year to around $0.50 today as supply improves.
Outlook: Chicken should stay stable near term, but wings carry some upside risk. Egg pricing may rebound as demand recovers and supply remains tighter than it appears.
Seafood
Snow crab prices continue to fall, down more than 15% over the past three months, reversing much of last year’s gains.
Outlook: Short-term relief should continue, but pricing could shift quickly depending on seasonal demand patterns.