Insights / Commodities Report

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomato and lettuce prices reversed course, trending slightly lower after recent surges—though supply concerns remain. Roma tomatoes may not settle until they hit $20/carton, and iceberg could still spike toward $30. Avocado prices dipped slightly but remain elevated, up over 60% y/y. Expect more movement in April pending tariff developments.   Grain Corn and wheat held mostly flat thanks to early-week gains from USDA reports, but new tariff fears sparked a market-wide sell-off later in the week. Mexico was spared, keeping corn more stable, but tensions with major buyers like China and Japan could pressure prices going forward. Soybeans remain the weakest link due to lack of bullish fundamentals.   Dairy Butter and cheese prices ticked slightly lower amid softening foodservice demand and fewer retail promos. Cheese blocks dropped to $1.62/lb, while barrels nudged up. Butter fell $0.05 to $2.33/lb. Milk output is increasing,

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce took the spotlight—25 lb. large romas soared 44% w/w and are now up nearly 62% over two weeks, while 24-count iceberg prices rose as crop transitions continue. Relief isn’t expected until mid-April. Expect short-term spikes followed by stabilization as seasonal shifts settle.   Grain Markets were subdued ahead of the USDA’s key planting and stock reports. Soybean oil bucked the trend, rising on strong export sales and renewed optimism around biofuel tax credit talks. Despite potentially bearish supply data, SBO futures may remain supported by policy developments and demand fundamentals.   Dairy Retail promotions and export activity pushed dairy prices higher last week. Butter rose $0.07 to $2.37/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels climbed to $1.65 and $1.64/lb, respectively. Foodservice demand remains soft, but retail demand is steady. Milk production is trending up, helping stabilize supply.   Beef Beef stayed strong

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce sector finally moved: Iceberg lettuce surged 32% w/w as Western crops transition, and roma tomatoes jumped 12.4% amid tightening Eastern supply. Avocados climbed 2.8%, with tariff concerns looming for April. Prices may stay elevated until summer. Yellow onions and most other categories remained stable, though iceberg and romas may continue rising short term.   Grain Wheat cooled after a strong run, with traders watching U.S. drought conditions ahead of April 7 crop progress updates. Despite net cancellations for the current marketing year, strong 2025/26 sales helped stabilize the complex. Export strength could reignite prices if drought worsens, but until then, expect sideways trading.   Dairy Dairy prices softened across the board amid lower retail promotions and mixed export demand. Butter fell $0.04 to $2.30/lb, and cheese blocks dropped 9% to $1.62/lb. Barrels were also down $0.16 to $1.57/lb. Cheese supply remains balanced,

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were mostly flat, with no major supply disruptions on the horizon. Avocado prices remain high, with potential tariff impacts looming in April. Iceberg lettuce ticked up slightly but remains stable, while roma tomatoes have held steady for six weeks.   Grain Wheat markets rebounded, fueled by export demand and drought concerns in U.S. hard red winter wheat regions. Corn and soybeans remain stagnant, with potential price movement hinging on upcoming export sales data.   Dairy Dairy prices rebounded after three weeks of decline, driven by increased retail promotions. Butter rose $0.04 to $2.34/lb, while cheese prices climbed, with blocks up 7% to $1.76/lb and barrels up 4% to $1.73/lb. Milk volumes remain high, with steady domestic demand and mixed international interest.   Beef The cattle market saw a nearly 3% increase, with beef demand strengthening ahead of the grilling season. Boneless ribeyes

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell 4.7% w/w but remain elevated, with little relief expected before summer. Yellow onions stabilized at a three-year low of $6/sack, while romas and lettuce held steady. A potential Q1/Q2 lettuce supply gap remains unpredictable.   Grain The grains sector declined but found support after the U.S. delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods. While U.S.-Canada talks remain tense, Mexico’s continued demand for U.S. corn and wheat offers some optimism. Meanwhile, soybeans face pressure from China’s stockpiling and Brazil’s record crop.   Dairy Dairy markets saw sharp declines, with CME blocks dropping 15% to $1.63/lb and barrels down 8% to $1.66/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.04 to $2.30/lb, with domestic demand steady but international buyers showing strong interest.   Beef Beef prices remained steady, with the choice cutout at $199.25/cwt. The rib complex strengthened, with bone-in export ribs up 6% to $8.87/lb. Ground beef 81%

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices spiked 7.6% to their highest level since June 2022, with little relief expected until summer. Iceberg lettuce dropped 18% w/w, erasing January gains, while yellow onions unexpectedly fell but should stabilize soon. Roma tomatoes remain steady, with potential price increases after April.   Grain Corn prices declined as ethanol stocks surged to near-record levels and U.S. tariff threats on Mexican imports raised export concerns. The USDA projected 2025 corn planting at 94 million acres, a sharp increase from 90.6 million last year, which could pressure prices further.   Dairy The dairy market softened, with CME blocks down $0.03 to $1.87/lb and butter falling $0.08 to $2.34/lb. Cheese demand from retail and foodservice remained steady, but buyers are purchasing fewer butter loads than seasonally expected.   Beef Beef prices were stable, with the choice cutout at $311.83/cwt and select at $302.18/cwt. The rib

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices rebounded 11.7% w/w, stalling their downward trend, with stability expected until late April or May. Iceberg lettuce unexpectedly fell 7.1% w/w despite ongoing concerns about cold weather impacts, signaling a potential short-term price ceiling between $20-$30/carton.   Grain Wheat markets remained strong, driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Russia. U.S. wheat export sales outperformed expectations, and with global supply already tight, prices should hold onto recent gains even if winterkill damage is minimal.   Dairy The dairy market was mixed, with CME blocks down $0.02 to $1.90/lb and barrels falling 3% to $1.78/lb. Butter prices rose $0.03 to $2.43/lb, supported by strong cream supply, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.   Beef Beef prices continued to decline, with the choice cutout down 2% to $312.62/cwt. Rib prices were mixed, with bone-in exports dropping 8% but boneless

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell another 9.5% w/w and should continue declining before stabilizing near $50/carton. Iceberg lettuce climbed 15% w/w due to cold weather impacts, though the price rally is unlikely to reach last year’s highs. Roma tomatoes remained stable, with no supply issues expected.   Grain Corn markets surged on strong export sales and new tariffs on Brazilian ethanol imports, boosting demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. While traders were disappointed by minimal WASDE report changes, the outlook remains positive as the market watches for upcoming planting data.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks up 3% to $1.91/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.83/lb, signaling strengthening demand. Butter prices held steady at $2.40/lb as cream supply remained abundant. Retail promotions increased, while retail prices trended lower.   Beef Beef prices softened, with the choice cutout down 2% to $317.40/cwt as February remains

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 41

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices jumped 8.4% w/w due to cold weather impacts, with potential supply gaps ahead. Avocado prices fell 6.8% as border supply improved, though a return to normal price levels isn’t expected until late February. Roma tomato declines slowed, with prices likely stabilizing soon.   Grain Wheat markets gained momentum as drought and freezing temperatures raised concerns over U.S. and Russian winter wheat crops. While immediate impacts are uncertain, February will be a key period for monitoring international demand.   Dairy The dairy market declined despite increased retail promotions, with CME blocks down $0.01 to $1.86/lb and barrels falling $0.07 to $1.80/lb. Butter prices dropped 2% w/w to $2.40/lb, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.   Beef Beef prices softened as February demand slowed, with the choice cutout down 1% to $323.98/cwt. While tenderloins may ease post-Valentine’s Day, shortloins surged

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Commodities Report 40

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes dropped another 28% w/w, hitting their lowest price since May 2023, but prices should stabilize soon. Avocados saw a slight price dip after a month of increases, though significant relief isn’t expected until late February.   Grain Corn prices fluctuated due to concerns over potential 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which could impact 35% of U.S. corn exports. Meanwhile, Brazil’s slow corn planting start provides some market support.   Dairy Cheese prices climbed, with CME blocks up $0.10 to $1.82/lb and barrels up $0.05 to $1.87/lb, while butter prices fell 3% w/w to $2.45/lb. Retail promotions softened, but demand for milk and cheese remains steady.   Beef Beef markets remained volatile, with the choice cutout at $327.92/cwt and select at $315.90/cwt. Rib prices have dropped 40% this month but should rebound ahead of spring grilling season, while choice tenderloins climbed 1% to