Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 87

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets saw renewed strength, led by lettuce and tomatoes, both of which reversed higher following the prior week’s decline. Lettuce pricing increased as harvest and yield challenges emerged in Western growing regions, accelerating the end of its recent downturn. While iceberg pricing has moved higher, it remains below the extreme spring and summer peaks that often exceed $40–$50 per carton. Tomato markets strengthened as cold temperatures persisted across the eastern U.S., with pricing supported despite steady supply from Mexico. Outlook: Lettuce pricing may continue to move higher through late Q1, with additional upside risk into early Q2. Tomato prices are expected to remain firm while cold weather conditions persist.   Grains Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week, while wheat prices rallied briefly. Initial gains were driven by concerns over cold weather in U.S. winter wheat regions

Vegetables

Commodities Report 86

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Weather-driven volatility returned to the produce complex. Roma tomato prices jumped 13% week over week, pushing values back into the mid-$15/carton range, largely due to cold conditions across the Eastern U.S. Iceberg lettuce pricing held firm despite expectations for declines, reflecting harvest and yield challenges out West. Avocados continued their upward climb, with 48-count Hass reaching an 11-week high. Outlook: Cold weather patterns suggest tomato pricing could remain elevated longer than anticipated, while iceberg lettuce carries short-term upside risk. Avocado prices are expected to stay firm until supply relief arrives later in Q2.   Grains Grain markets rebounded, led by soybean oil as traders position ahead of anticipated EPA rulings on 2026 biofuel blending requirements. Soybeans followed higher but remain capped by technical resistance and concerns around unshipped export sales. Outlook: Near-term soybean upside appears limited, with resistance around $10.80 likely containing gains unless