Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Produce trends were similar to the prior week, with avocados easing while lettuce and tomatoes continued to firm. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the remainder of their late-May gains and returning to near year-ago levels. At the same time, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, likely supported in part by recent heavy rain in key eastern U.S. growing regions. Avocados are already relatively inexpensive for early September, while tomatoes may be starting their typical seasonal climb a bit early.
Outlook: Avocados may stabilize at low levels from here, while tomatoes still appear to have room to move higher into the fall.
Grains
The grain rally paused last week after several weeks of strength, with wheat weakness spilling into corn and soybeans. Attention is now squarely on the upcoming USDA September Crop Production and WASDE reports, especially as the market weighs whether yields will come in below USDA’s August estimates. Corn is entering the report with already tight domestic and global balance sheets, meaning even a modest cut to production could be significant if USDA cannot offset it with lower demand assumptions. In short, the market is waiting for confirmation on whether supplies are truly tightening.
Outlook: Grain markets could turn higher again quickly if Friday’s USDA report confirms lower corn yields and offers limited room for demand reductions.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed last week, with butter and cheese lower while powder markets strengthened. Butter fell to its lowest price in more than seven months, and cheese blocks hit a nine-week low, while nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest level in over two months. On the production side, supply growth remains strong: July butter production was up 5.5% year over year and set a record for the month, while cheese production increased 2.1% from 2025, also a July record. International support is helping powder markets, with European skim milk powder prices nearing four-year highs.
Outlook: Strong milk and product output should keep a lid on butter and cheese pricing near term, though seasonal patterns suggest cheese may remain competitively priced this fall.
Beef
Beef production improved week over week, but overall supply remains notably tighter than last year. Last week’s output rose 3.7% from the prior week, though it was still 3.1% below the same week last year, and 2026 year-to-date production is down 5.4% due to a 7.9% drop in cattle slaughter. Beef values were softer overall, with USDA Choice and Select cutouts lower on the week and briskets, flanks, and plates seeing the biggest declines; only rib primals moved higher. A major supply development is the reopening of cattle imports from Mexico, which resumed on August 24, and the Douglas, Arizona and St. Teresa, New Mexico ports together have accounted for 63% of Mexican cattle imports over the last three years.
Outlook: Beef supplies should gradually improve as Mexican cattle imports normalize, but meaningful relief in beef pricing will likely take time as those animals work through feedlots.
Pork
Pork production is still growing modestly, but market pricing remains under pressure heading into a seasonally weaker period. Last week’s production was up 0.2% from the prior week and 0.5% above the same week last year, with year-to-date output up 0.4% versus 2025 despite a 0.7% decline in hog slaughter. The USDA pork cutout fell 1.6% to its lowest level since February, while pork bellies dropped nearly 6% in one week. Seasonality is also a factor: the pork cutout has averaged lower in September versus August in 9 of the last 11 years.
Outlook: Pork pricing is likely to remain soft through September, especially for bellies and trim, though limited hog supplies should help prevent a much sharper downturn.
Poultry
Chicken production remains relatively strong, but suppliers appear to be slowing output growth to help support pricing and improve margins. Last week’s young chicken slaughter was up 0.3% from the prior week and was sharply above the same week last year, while year-to-date slaughter is running 2.3% above 2025. Even so, pricing was mostly weaker across the complex, led by a 4% drop in wings, and chicken tenders fell to a 43-month low. Longer term, supply could stay elevated because the August 1 broiler layer inventory was 1.5% above last year, and pounds produced per layer are averaging 4.4% higher year over year, a record pace.
Outlook: Poultry prices may stay mixed near term, but unless breeder flock numbers start to fall, plentiful production capacity could limit any sustained price increases.
Seafood
Pollock prices continued to track cod higher, keeping whitefish costs elevated even if pollock has not reached the same record highs. Through June data, frozen Alaskan pollock filet prices rose 3.8% month over month, closely following cod’s 5% monthly increase. Supply patterns remain unusual, with pollock import volumes not falling below normal until June, when they essentially flattened instead of following their usual seasonal rise. Improvement may come later this year, but a full return to normal supply patterns may not happen until 2027.
Outlook: Pollock prices may not have much additional upside, but meaningful price relief is unlikely before late Q4.