Insights / Commodities Report

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were mostly flat, with no major supply disruptions on the horizon. Avocado prices remain high, with potential tariff impacts looming in April. Iceberg lettuce ticked up slightly but remains stable, while roma tomatoes have held steady for six weeks.   Grain Wheat markets rebounded, fueled by export demand and drought concerns in U.S. hard red winter wheat regions. Corn and soybeans remain stagnant, with potential price movement hinging on upcoming export sales data.   Dairy Dairy prices rebounded after three weeks of decline, driven by increased retail promotions. Butter rose $0.04 to $2.34/lb, while cheese prices climbed, with blocks up 7% to $1.76/lb and barrels up 4% to $1.73/lb. Milk volumes remain high, with steady domestic demand and mixed international interest.   Beef The cattle market saw a nearly 3% increase, with beef demand strengthening ahead of the grilling season. Boneless ribeyes

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell 4.7% w/w but remain elevated, with little relief expected before summer. Yellow onions stabilized at a three-year low of $6/sack, while romas and lettuce held steady. A potential Q1/Q2 lettuce supply gap remains unpredictable.   Grain The grains sector declined but found support after the U.S. delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods. While U.S.-Canada talks remain tense, Mexico’s continued demand for U.S. corn and wheat offers some optimism. Meanwhile, soybeans face pressure from China’s stockpiling and Brazil’s record crop.   Dairy Dairy markets saw sharp declines, with CME blocks dropping 15% to $1.63/lb and barrels down 8% to $1.66/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.04 to $2.30/lb, with domestic demand steady but international buyers showing strong interest.   Beef Beef prices remained steady, with the choice cutout at $199.25/cwt. The rib complex strengthened, with bone-in export ribs up 6% to $8.87/lb. Ground beef 81%

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices spiked 7.6% to their highest level since June 2022, with little relief expected until summer. Iceberg lettuce dropped 18% w/w, erasing January gains, while yellow onions unexpectedly fell but should stabilize soon. Roma tomatoes remain steady, with potential price increases after April.   Grain Corn prices declined as ethanol stocks surged to near-record levels and U.S. tariff threats on Mexican imports raised export concerns. The USDA projected 2025 corn planting at 94 million acres, a sharp increase from 90.6 million last year, which could pressure prices further.   Dairy The dairy market softened, with CME blocks down $0.03 to $1.87/lb and butter falling $0.08 to $2.34/lb. Cheese demand from retail and foodservice remained steady, but buyers are purchasing fewer butter loads than seasonally expected.   Beef Beef prices were stable, with the choice cutout at $311.83/cwt and select at $302.18/cwt. The rib

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices rebounded 11.7% w/w, stalling their downward trend, with stability expected until late April or May. Iceberg lettuce unexpectedly fell 7.1% w/w despite ongoing concerns about cold weather impacts, signaling a potential short-term price ceiling between $20-$30/carton.   Grain Wheat markets remained strong, driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Russia. U.S. wheat export sales outperformed expectations, and with global supply already tight, prices should hold onto recent gains even if winterkill damage is minimal.   Dairy The dairy market was mixed, with CME blocks down $0.02 to $1.90/lb and barrels falling 3% to $1.78/lb. Butter prices rose $0.03 to $2.43/lb, supported by strong cream supply, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.   Beef Beef prices continued to decline, with the choice cutout down 2% to $312.62/cwt. Rib prices were mixed, with bone-in exports dropping 8% but boneless

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell another 9.5% w/w and should continue declining before stabilizing near $50/carton. Iceberg lettuce climbed 15% w/w due to cold weather impacts, though the price rally is unlikely to reach last year’s highs. Roma tomatoes remained stable, with no supply issues expected.   Grain Corn markets surged on strong export sales and new tariffs on Brazilian ethanol imports, boosting demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. While traders were disappointed by minimal WASDE report changes, the outlook remains positive as the market watches for upcoming planting data.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks up 3% to $1.91/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.83/lb, signaling strengthening demand. Butter prices held steady at $2.40/lb as cream supply remained abundant. Retail promotions increased, while retail prices trended lower.   Beef Beef prices softened, with the choice cutout down 2% to $317.40/cwt as February remains

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices jumped 8.4% w/w due to cold weather impacts, with potential supply gaps ahead. Avocado prices fell 6.8% as border supply improved, though a return to normal price levels isn’t expected until late February. Roma tomato declines slowed, with prices likely stabilizing soon.   Grain Wheat markets gained momentum as drought and freezing temperatures raised concerns over U.S. and Russian winter wheat crops. While immediate impacts are uncertain, February will be a key period for monitoring international demand.   Dairy The dairy market declined despite increased retail promotions, with CME blocks down $0.01 to $1.86/lb and barrels falling $0.07 to $1.80/lb. Butter prices dropped 2% w/w to $2.40/lb, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.   Beef Beef prices softened as February demand slowed, with the choice cutout down 1% to $323.98/cwt. While tenderloins may ease post-Valentine’s Day, shortloins surged

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes dropped another 28% w/w, hitting their lowest price since May 2023, but prices should stabilize soon. Avocados saw a slight price dip after a month of increases, though significant relief isn’t expected until late February.   Grain Corn prices fluctuated due to concerns over potential 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which could impact 35% of U.S. corn exports. Meanwhile, Brazil’s slow corn planting start provides some market support.   Dairy Cheese prices climbed, with CME blocks up $0.10 to $1.82/lb and barrels up $0.05 to $1.87/lb, while butter prices fell 3% w/w to $2.45/lb. Retail promotions softened, but demand for milk and cheese remains steady.   Beef Beef markets remained volatile, with the choice cutout at $327.92/cwt and select at $315.90/cwt. Rib prices have dropped 40% this month but should rebound ahead of spring grilling season, while choice tenderloins climbed 1% to

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices climbed another 10% w/w, driven by high demand ahead of the Super Bowl, though increased volumes may stabilize the market after February. Roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop but are expected to level out within the next two weeks.   Grain Soybean meal prices surged 5% last week, fueled by dry weather in Argentina’s key growing regions. While some rain is forecasted, the ongoing drought is keeping the global market on edge. U.S. soybean meal exports are already at record highs for the 2024/25 marketing year.   Dairy Dairy markets softened last week, with cheese and butter prices declining slightly. CME blocks and barrels fell $0.07 to $1.82/lb, while butter demand remained mixed amid ample cream supplies. Retail promotions increased, but retail prices stayed lower than last year, creating a favorable market for operators.   Beef Beef markets saw mixed movements,

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices climbed 14.5% w/w, hitting a 20-week high with more increases expected through February. Meanwhile, roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop, falling another 16.4% last week.   Grain Wheat prices inched up 1.5% w/w following USDA balance sheet updates. The ongoing Black Sea weather risks could tighten global wheat supplies, possibly benefiting U.S. producers.   Dairy Dairy prices softened as butter and cheese production remained steady with ample supply. CME spot butter fell $0.06 w/w to $2.54/lb, while retail cheese advertisements dropped for the third consecutive week.   Beef Beef prices continue climbing, with ground beef up 32% over the past month and choice cuts seeing steady increases. The rib and round segments saw mixed movements, but consumer demand for ground products keeps pushing prices higher.   Pork Ham prices rose 2% w/w as Easter preparations began, while ribs and loins saw

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices increased 10% w/w, defying expectations of early-year weakness, while large roma tomatoes dropped 14%. Yellow onions remain steady, with potential growth on the horizon. Avocado pricing may not ease significantly until April or later.   Grain Grain markets had a strong start to 2025, with soybean oil leading the charge, climbing 11% w/w on optimism surrounding biofuel tax credit guidance. Wheat also saw gains, breaking its December stagnation, signaling a potentially positive trend for the sector.   Dairy Butter prices rose slightly to $2.60/lb as cream volumes remain abundant, favoring processors. Cheese prices were mixed, with blocks falling slightly and barrels increasing. Production schedules were lighter during the holidays but are expected to strengthen in the new year.   Beef The February cattle contract increased by 2% to $198.35/cwt, with choice and select cutouts also climbing. However, rib prices fell significantly, while