Insights / Supply Chain Resource Center

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 69

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce continues its sharp rally, nearly doubling in four weeks on tight Western yields. Tomatoes slipped after a short-lived bump but remain poised to firm through fall. Avocados have stabilized near $30/carton as Mexico transitions crop cycles. Outlook: Expect high lettuce pricing to persist into late December. Tomatoes will likely climb steadily into November. Avocados look set for a quieter finish to the year.   Grains Markets were calm overall, with spring wheat seeing unusual volatility midweek but recovering by Friday. Soybean oil erased recent gains and is once again testing its long-term moving average. Outlook: Wheat looks stable heading into harvest updates. SBO may rebound from current levels given past technical support.   Dairy Cheese blocks and barrels both closed at $1.78/lb, with steady demand at retail and abroad. Butter dropped sharply to $2.08/lb, continuing its month-long slide, though prices remain above

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 68

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce led the charge higher. Iceberg prices jumped 10.5% w/w, and with the September–November rally approaching, prices are unlikely to ease soon. Roma tomatoes corrected higher after sharp summer losses. Outlook: Tomato markets should steady in the short term, but lettuce is primed for another extended rally, potentially pushing toward last year’s highs.   Grains Corn and soybeans found rare strength after the Pro Farmer crop tour revealed weaker yields in key states like Iowa and Illinois versus USDA estimates. Wheat managed slight gains. Outlook: Lower yield expectations sparked a rally, but Minnesota’s bumper crop could offset some national losses. Markets will stay weather- and report-driven.   Dairy Butter led declines, dropping $0.04 to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets were steady to weaker. Milk supplies remain tight as heat impacts cow comfort, though retail and export cheese demand is stable. Outlook: Butter demand

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 67

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Markets held steady after recent volatility. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes were stable, though romas are expected to rise through fall. Potatoes remain quiet, suggesting the pre-harvest rally is behind us. Outlook: Watch for typical seasonal price runups in September and October, particularly on lettuce and tomatoes, while potatoes could soften further into year-end.   Grains The USDA’s WASDE report brought a bearish surprise for corn with yield projections raised sharply, while soybeans turned bullish. Corn production outlooks surged well above trade expectations, creating a heavy supply picture. Outlook: Corn prices face extended headwinds from burdensome supply, while soybeans may see firmer footing given tighter balance sheets.   Dairy Cheese markets were mixed, with blocks easing but barrels slightly higher. Butter was the biggest mover, falling on soft foodservice demand as cream supplies loosen. Milk production remains seasonally low but adequate. Outlook: Cheese demand

Vegetables

Commodities Report 66

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce reversed recent declines, spiking to $25.49/carton due to light weights and disease risk in Western growing regions. This follows July’s YTD high, which many expected to normalize. If trends hold, iceberg could approach $35/carton later this fall, potentially staying above $20 into early 2026. Avocados moved the opposite direction, with 48-count Hass hitting their lowest price since Jan 2024 despite crop transitions in Mexico and tariff chatter. Outlook: Lettuce pricing remains highly vulnerable to further weather or disease setbacks. Avocado prices should stay relatively low into year-end unless significant supply disruptions emerge.   Grains Grain markets stabilized after weeks of weakness, with modest w/w gains in corn, wheat, and soybean meal. Strong export demand helped offset forecasts for a larger U.S. corn yield—now expected at 184 bu/acre and possibly ending the year near 188. The WASDE report loomed over trading, keeping gains

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 65

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Potato prices held flat, but the pre-harvest rally may be topping out. Iceberg lettuce took a nosedive—down nearly 37%—while avocados and tomatoes behaved as expected. No major supply concerns yet. Outlook: Lettuce pricing should stabilize near its short-term floor. Avocados might bump up briefly in early August but should trend lower overall. Expect a quiet few weeks before produce pricing heats up again in late Q3.   Grains Grain prices were down again. The rising dollar and falling soybean prices dragged the market lower—even soybean oil dipped despite improved biofuel demand. Outlook: SBO demand for biofuels is recovering, but not enough to offset broader market weakness. Expect continued pressure unless grain exports surge or weather events shake things up.   Dairy Cheese block and barrel prices both rose slightly, while butter edged up $0.01/lb. Milk output is lighter in hot regions, but manufacturers are