Insights / Commodities Report

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 39

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices climbed another 10% w/w, driven by high demand ahead of the Super Bowl, though increased volumes may stabilize the market after February. Roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop but are expected to level out within the next two weeks.   Grain Soybean meal prices surged 5% last week, fueled by dry weather in Argentina’s key growing regions. While some rain is forecasted, the ongoing drought is keeping the global market on edge. U.S. soybean meal exports are already at record highs for the 2024/25 marketing year.   Dairy Dairy markets softened last week, with cheese and butter prices declining slightly. CME blocks and barrels fell $0.07 to $1.82/lb, while butter demand remained mixed amid ample cream supplies. Retail promotions increased, but retail prices stayed lower than last year, creating a favorable market for operators.   Beef Beef markets saw mixed movements,

Vegetables

Commodities Report 38

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices climbed 14.5% w/w, hitting a 20-week high with more increases expected through February. Meanwhile, roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop, falling another 16.4% last week.   Grain Wheat prices inched up 1.5% w/w following USDA balance sheet updates. The ongoing Black Sea weather risks could tighten global wheat supplies, possibly benefiting U.S. producers.   Dairy Dairy prices softened as butter and cheese production remained steady with ample supply. CME spot butter fell $0.06 w/w to $2.54/lb, while retail cheese advertisements dropped for the third consecutive week.   Beef Beef prices continue climbing, with ground beef up 32% over the past month and choice cuts seeing steady increases. The rib and round segments saw mixed movements, but consumer demand for ground products keeps pushing prices higher.   Pork Ham prices rose 2% w/w as Easter preparations began, while ribs and loins saw

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 37

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices increased 10% w/w, defying expectations of early-year weakness, while large roma tomatoes dropped 14%. Yellow onions remain steady, with potential growth on the horizon. Avocado pricing may not ease significantly until April or later.   Grain Grain markets had a strong start to 2025, with soybean oil leading the charge, climbing 11% w/w on optimism surrounding biofuel tax credit guidance. Wheat also saw gains, breaking its December stagnation, signaling a potentially positive trend for the sector.   Dairy Butter prices rose slightly to $2.60/lb as cream volumes remain abundant, favoring processors. Cheese prices were mixed, with blocks falling slightly and barrels increasing. Production schedules were lighter during the holidays but are expected to strengthen in the new year.   Beef The February cattle contract increased by 2% to $198.35/cwt, with choice and select cutouts also climbing. However, rib prices fell significantly, while

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 36

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce remained focal points, with roma tomatoes falling 14.6% to their lowest since October. Prices are expected to decline further into January. Iceberg lettuce continued its correction, with stabilization anticipated soon around $10/carton.   Grain Grain markets were stable, with Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posting modest gains. Corn rallied early but fell short of five-month highs. The USDA’s December WASDE reduced 2024/25 carryout projections, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 11.4%, marking the first y/y decline since 2020/21.   Dairy The dairy market was mixed as butter rose $0.03 to $2.52/lb, while cheese saw gains with blocks up $0.12 to $1.78/lb. Production schedules varied nationwide, and retail promotions dropped to their lowest level in a month, despite steady retail cheese demand.   Beef The beef market saw gains as CME December cattle futures rose nearly 3% to $192.85/cwt. Bone-in export ribs and

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 35

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce market faces ongoing challenges from weather disruptions, transitions, and logistical hurdles, with supply constraints and high prices expected for key commodities through December. Despite gradual improvements, heat damage and cold weather are impacting yields and crop growth, complicating transitions. Broccoli supplies remain tight with prorating expected, while commodities like lettuce, cauliflower, artichokes, and various greens continue to experience high prices and limited availability. Flexibility and coordination are essential to stabilize operations.   Grain Soybean meal was the only major grain to post week-over-week gains. Corn prices faced downward pressure amid trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico. Meanwhile, U.S. winter wheat conditions improved as drought in the Southern Plains continued to ease.   Dairy Spot block cheese prices remained stable, but barrel prices fell to a 32-week low. Spot butter hit a new year-to-date low, reflecting softened market conditions. Meanwhile, cold storage

Vegetables

Commodities Report 34

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices climbed another 24% last week amid ongoing crop transitions and yield concerns, defying typical seasonal trends as prices remain elevated. Roma tomatoes rose 5.2%, reaching their highest level since January, driven by Mexican growers transitioning between regions, though this aligns with usual seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, green tomatoes saw a slight price decline—the first since September—following disruptions caused by recent hurricanes in the Eastern U.S.   Grain Grain markets were quiet last week, with soybean oil (SBO) taking a sharp 7% drop due to a collapse in palm oil prices following reports of unexpectedly high September carryout in Indonesia. SBO prices are now trending near October lows despite strong export sales to India, though weaker soybean prices and speculation of slower demand may be contributing to the selloff. Corn and soybean export sales remain solid, but market skepticism persists, with traders anticipating

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 33

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices surged another 88% week-over-week, more than tripling over the past month to reach $39.18/carton, driven by California crop transitions and lower yields from adverse growing conditions. This sharp increase has returned prices to the typical $35-$55 range for Q4, a stark contrast to the flat iceberg pricing trends seen in late 2022. Reports suggest prices may remain elevated above $35 longer than usual as supply challenges persist.   Grain Grain markets faced declines last week, led by losses in the soybean and wheat complexes, driven by favorable rainfall in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean oil (SBO) also reversed its upward trend due to weaker export sales, the halt in palm oil’s rally, and concerns over U.S. biofuel policy under President-elect Trump’s EPA pick, Lee Zeldin, who has previously opposed ethanol growth. While palm oil’s recovery could support SBO in the short term,

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 32

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices surged nearly 45% last week to an 18-week high, yet they remain below typical fall levels due to unusually low prices since early September. With declining yields and a regional transition on the West Coast, prices are expected to continue rising through mid-November before easing back in January. Roma tomatoes saw a slight decline, but limited volumes from Florida and Mexico should keep prices stable until December, while 48-count Hass avocados dropped 1% week-over-week, though prices remain elevated 37% year-over-year.   Grain Grain markets saw a positive week, driven by robust export sales in corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Corn exports hit nearly 11 million metric tons over the past month, reaching levels last seen in 2020-21, with strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and Colombia filling the gap left by China. Soybean oil also saw impressive sales, with last

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets face ongoing challenges due to the transition from Salinas to Yuma and compounded by past weather effects, pests, and incoming cold temperatures. Supplies of key items like broccoli, endive, and escarole remain tight, with limited availability projected through November, while extreme shortages are expected for items like bok choy and artichokes. Avocado volumes from Mexico look strong heading into the Super Bowl, though small sizes will dominate until late December. In the Southeast, crop volatility from hurricane damage is impacting numerous crops, including citrus, tomatoes, and peppers, signaling potential price increases and quality issues in the coming weeks.   Grain Soybean oil (SBO) prices surged to a three-month high, influenced by rising palm oil futures, increased biofuel demand in Indonesia, and a recent flash sale of 30,000 metric tons of SBO to India, marking the first sale since March 2022. India’s significant

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce market faces ongoing challenges as growers transition between regions, with lasting effects from heat, pest issues, and recent hurricanes impacting availability and prices. Romaine, iceberg lettuce, broccoli, and other leafy greens are seeing reduced volumes due to heat stress and pest damage, while crops in the Southeast, including citrus and tomatoes, are heavily affected by recent hurricanes, leading to significant supply losses. High demand persists for items like avocados and table grapes, though the grape season may end early due to heat-related losses, and mushrooms remain constrained across all varieties.   Grain The grains market remained relatively stable, with soybean oil and corn seeing slight gains. Soybean oil’s increase was largely driven by rising palm oil prices, though U.S. fundamentals may not support a prolonged rally. Corn export sales, however, continued at an impressive pace, with recent sales totaling 3.6 million metric