Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Most produce markets are relatively calm, but iceberg lettuce is standing out. Supplies remain snug, and pricing has climbed for four straight weeks, with cartons recently averaging around $16.95, up from $14.95 the prior week. Regional transition issues continue to limit relief.
Outlook: Lettuce costs could remain choppy in the short term, so this is one category worth monitoring closely for menu-heavy operators.
Grains
Corn, soybean, and wheat markets were mostly quiet heading into one of the most important USDA reporting windows of the season. Corn acreage expectations are sitting near 95 million acres, while soybean acreage is projected closer to 83.7 million acres, both of which could move markets depending on final government estimates.
Outlook: Grain volatility may increase quickly as traders digest updated acreage and stock data, which could eventually affect feed and ingredient costs.
Dairy
Dairy markets softened again last week, with cheese blocks closing near $1.65/lb, their lowest level in about six months, while butter slipped to roughly $2.53/lb. Milk production remains ample, but butter inventories are running 6.8% below last year, which could become more important if demand picks up.
Outlook: Dairy is offering some welcome cost relief right now, but inventory trends suggest the downside may be limited.
Beef
Fed cattle harvest is still running below last year, down about 7.4% year to date, but feedlot placements dropped an even steeper 9.7% in the latest report — a sign that future supply could stay tight. At the same time, total cattle on feed were still up 1.2% versus a year ago, offering a little near-term support.
Outlook: Beef prices are likely to stay elevated, so operators may want to watch for value opportunities in specific middle meats and end cuts.
Pork
Pork continues to offer one of the best protein values in the market, with the pork cutout recently averaging around 21% below year-ago levels. Ham prices have started to recover, up roughly 12% from mid-May lows, but bellies and trim have remained under pressure due to weaker seasonal demand.
Outlook: Pork still looks attractive for menu placement now, though tighter herd numbers could slowly shift the supply picture later this year.
Poultry
Chicken production continues to run well above last year, with year-to-date output up more than 2% and weekly harvest recently topping 177 million head. Even with that increased production, inventories for several key cuts remain mixed: breast meat stocks were down 17% month over month, while thigh meat inventories fell nearly 34%.
Outlook: Chicken remains relatively manageable for now, but if production slows in response to weaker processor margins, some cuts could tighten quickly.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia pricing has been anything but steady, with monthly price moves ranging from a 7.6% decline in March to a 12.2% jump in April. Even with that recent increase, current market levels remain below the historical average for this time of year.
Outlook: Seafood buyers may continue to see some short-term swings, but pricing still appears relatively favorable compared to longer-term norms.