Insights / Robert Otterson

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was generally steady, with a few items worth watching. 48-count Hass avocados continued to decline and are approaching their current year-to-date low, with likely support near $20 per carton. 24-count iceberg lettuce edged higher again and may be entering its seasonal late-year rally earlier than usual, leaving room for more upside into November. 25-lb. large Roma tomatoes are also expected to trend higher seasonally, though likely only toward $30 in November, well below the $40+ levels seen this spring. Outlook: Produce should remain relatively calm overall, with the best upside risk centered on lettuce and Roma tomatoes as fall progresses.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet outside of soybean meal, which has led recent gains in the soybean complex. December corn has been trading in the $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September crop report, and the new forecast puts the 2026/27

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was relatively steady last week, with no major disruptions across the top items being tracked. 48-count Hass avocados declined for a fifth straight week and are expected to stay under pressure through at least early October. 25 lb. large roma tomatoes and 24-count iceberg lettuce both continued to rise, though gains slowed considerably; from here into early November, both markets are expected to trend higher, but likely not back to the peaks seen earlier this year. Yellow and white onions may soften somewhat through November, while red onions are expected to stay fairly stable. Outlook: Produce markets look manageable overall, with avocado relief continuing while tomatoes and lettuce are likely to grind higher seasonally.   Grains Grain markets had another soft week, with Friday’s volatility shaping the final tone. Corn eased back after the USDA’s updated forecast came in close to expectations, including

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce trends were similar to the prior week, with avocados easing while lettuce and tomatoes continued to firm. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the remainder of their late-May gains and returning to near year-ago levels. At the same time, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, likely supported in part by recent heavy rain in key eastern U.S. growing regions. Avocados are already relatively inexpensive for early September, while tomatoes may be starting their typical seasonal climb a bit early. Outlook: Avocados may stabilize at low levels from here, while tomatoes still appear to have room to move higher into the fall.   Grains The grain rally paused last week after several weeks of strength, with wheat weakness spilling into corn and soybeans. Attention is now squarely on the upcoming

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce buyers got some welcome relief last week, especially in categories that had been running hot. Iceberg lettuce posted its first weekly decline in five weeks, dropping nearly 28% week over week as supplies improved modestly and elevated prices likely slowed demand. Avocados also moved sharply lower, with 48-count Hass down another 19.7% to a six-week low, while 25 lb. large roma tomatoes fell 16.8% to a new year-to-date low. Even with the pullback, some items may still have upside risk as the summer progresses. Outlook: Produce markets are offering some near-term relief, but operators should stay alert since several categories could stabilize and turn higher again later this season.   Grains Grain markets finished mostly higher last week, with corn and soybeans recovering after early pressure tied to pre-report positioning ahead of the USDA’s June Acreage and Stocks reports. The biggest surprise came

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Significant price relief is emerging for key produce items. Tomato prices have dropped sharply due to new supplies from the Eastern U.S. and Mexico, with 25 lb. large romas expected to return to the $10-$15/carton range by late June. Onion markets are stabilizing as the transition from old storage crops to new ones in California and New Mexico is underway, with a sharp price downturn anticipated in the coming weeks. Lettuce prices remain historically elevated after an April surge but are expected to normalize by the end of May, with 24-count iceberg cartons projected to be in the $15-$20 range by mid-June. Outlook: Expect further price reductions for tomatoes and onions through June, with moderating lettuce costs by mid-June. This presents an opportune time to plan aggressive summer promotions for salads, BLTs, and other produce-forward dishes as availability improves.   Grains The May Crop