Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 73

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce market stayed calm this week. Roma tomatoes corrected downward after last week’s spike, and iceberg lettuce slipped slightly but looks to be stabilizing. No major crop disruptions are on the horizon, though prices may edge up into November as seasonal shifts take hold. Outlook: Expect modest price increases heading into the holidays as cooler weather impacts yields. Consider featuring produce-forward dishes now while costs remain steady.   Grains Grain markets moved mostly lower as corn and wheat struggled to maintain momentum. Corn export demand remains strong — hitting a new record pace — but prices couldn’t sustain gains. Wheat held firm on improved export activity. Outlook: Despite strong export demand, futures remain under pressure, which could translate into lower feed costs for proteins later this fall.   Dairy Dairy prices were mixed this week — cheese blocks eased $0.04 to $1.64/lb while

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 72

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes soared 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton—the highest since January. Iceberg lettuce continued to weaken, nearing YTD lows around $10/carton. Outlook: Tomato prices may not sustain their sharp rally, but levels should stay elevated heading into November. Iceberg looks set to bottom soon, with prices expected to rebound modestly into Q4, though not likely to reach prior ceiling targets.   Grains Corn saw back-and-forth movement following USDA’s September reports. Added acreage and higher export projections kept a lid on rallies, with futures unable to push above $4.30. Outlook: Without fresh catalysts, corn prices likely drift lower in the near term. Operators should expect steady to softer flour and feed costs.   Dairy CME blocks climbed to $1.68/lb while barrels held at $1.64/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.12 to $1.81/lb. Cheese production is steady with mixed demand, while butter makers are ramping up for holiday runs

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 71

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Leafy greens are steady out of Salinas with mostly good quality, though heat remains a watchpoint. Tomatoes are mixed depending on region, with grape and cherry sizes showing tighter supply. Potatoes and onions are stable with new-crop supply helping balance markets. Avocados are available but with size variability, while berries remain variable in both supply and quality depending on district. Outlook: Greens could firm slightly if heat affects yields. Tomatoes and berries are likely to remain inconsistent in the short term. Potatoes and onions should stay steady. Operators should plan for flexibility in salad builds and be ready with substitutions on fresh fruit offerings.   Grains Grain markets are steady, with flour supported by adequate harvest progress. Bakers and operators relying on wheat-based goods are seeing relief compared to earlier in the year, though logistics costs remain a factor to watch. Outlook: Expect mostly