Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 79

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce After several weeks of steady increases, lettuce finally cooled off. Iceberg prices dropped 21% week-over-week, landing back near $40/carton after racing past $50 just a week prior. Other lettuce types held firm, while tomato markets also settled — large romas eased as overall tomato demand remained softer than usual for this time of year. Outlook: Iceberg could stabilize or rebound slightly in the short term, but with the seasonal peak near, prices are likely to ease through late November. Tomato markets may remain steady-to-soft, offering some cost relief for operators heading into the winter months.   Grains Grain markets were volatile last week, swinging on mixed trade signals. Corn, soybeans, and both major winter wheat varieties finished lower. The optimism around a U.S.–China trade truce cooled as China made new soybean purchases from Brazil at lower prices, reinforcing competitive tension. Wheat markets dipped when

Vegetables

Commodities Report 78

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices soared again, up 52% week-over-week, reaching their highest levels since late 2022—now exceeding $50 per carton. The surge has been driven by tight supply out West and limited relief expected in the short term. Roma tomatoes also climbed, though at a slower pace. Outlook: Lettuce prices may continue climbing toward $60 per carton before stabilizing by mid-to-late November. Expect some relief closer to December as growing regions transition and supply normalizes.   Grains Grains traded mostly higher last week, except soybean oil, which weakened. A new U.S.–China trade agreement brought attention to soybean exports, with China committing to import 12 million metric tons this year and 25 MMT annually for the next three years. Corn and wheat showed modest strength as a result. Outlook: Soybeans could see moderate price support through the winter as global demand expectations improve, while corn and wheat

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 77

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets remain active as cooler weather tightens supply. Iceberg lettuce prices rose another 16% week-over-week to a new year-to-date high, while tomato markets took center stage with large romas jumping nearly 60%, erasing several weeks of losses. Avocados inched higher for only the third time since March, stabilizing near $30 per carton. Outlook: Expect firm pricing on lettuce and tomatoes as growing regions transition and demand stays strong. Avocado markets should remain steady heading into November.   Grains Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal all posted solid gains, breaking through technical resistance levels and finishing the week higher. Traders appear optimistic about potential trade progress with China, though no official news has confirmed that outlook. Analysts note that fund activity and speculative buying likely drove the sudden rally. Outlook: Grain markets may remain choppy as traders wait for firmer signals on export demand and