Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce brought some welcome relief last week, especially in lettuce, where iceberg prices dropped sharply after several elevated weeks. Avocado prices also continued to ease, and while both markets may be nearing a floor, current levels are a much better buying environment than earlier in the season. Outlook: Lettuce and avocado pricing should stay more favorable in the near term, with lettuce likely stabilizing soon and avocados facing only modest upside risk into August.   Grains Grain markets were mostly stronger early in the week as hot Corn Belt weather raised production concerns, but cooler forecasts later in the week took some of that urgency out of the market. Wheat ended on a strong note, while corn still appears rangebound unless weather becomes more threatening. Outlook: Grains will remain highly weather-driven, but without a meaningful crop threat, prices may struggle to push much higher

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Most produce markets are relatively calm, but iceberg lettuce is standing out. Supplies remain snug, and pricing has climbed for four straight weeks, with cartons recently averaging around $16.95, up from $14.95 the prior week. Regional transition issues continue to limit relief. Outlook: Lettuce costs could remain choppy in the short term, so this is one category worth monitoring closely for menu-heavy operators.   Grains Corn, soybean, and wheat markets were mostly quiet heading into one of the most important USDA reporting windows of the season. Corn acreage expectations are sitting near 95 million acres, while soybean acreage is projected closer to 83.7 million acres, both of which could move markets depending on final government estimates. Outlook: Grain volatility may increase quickly as traders digest updated acreage and stock data, which could eventually affect feed and ingredient costs.   Dairy Dairy markets softened again

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices continued climbing due to ongoing supply challenges, while tomato prices are showing normal seasonal increases after returning to more typical levels. Most other produce markets remained relatively stable. Outlook: Lettuce will likely stay elevated until supplies recover, while tomatoes may continue a gradual seasonal climb through mid-July.   Grains Grain markets were mixed, with corn, soybeans, and wheat showing signs of stabilizing after recent declines, while soybean oil continued to weaken. Overall, markets remain influenced by energy prices and crop expectations. Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, but current trends suggest limited upward price pressure in the near term.   Dairy CME spot activity was active but most dairy markets trended lower for the week; nonfat dry milk hit near three-month lows as buyers delay purchases expecting cheaper prices, while butter has shown unexpected firmness despite lower international prices. U.S.

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce With tomatoes, yellow onions and avocados easing, lettuce—especially 24-count iceberg—became the main price story as multiple supply gaps pushed prices to a year-to-date high and created unusually volatile early‑year pricing. Supply constraints in both western and eastern growing regions have kept upward pressure on iceberg. Outlook: Buying pressure for lettuce should remain short term (1–2 weeks); broader relief likely won’t arrive until supply gaps close later in the season.   Grains Grain losses slowed last week; wheat even ticked higher after touching its 100‑day moving average, soybeans largely held ground, and corn rallied early in the week before pressure resumed on Thursday after larger South American production estimates and good U.S. rainfall. December soybean oil is testing the $70 area and remains vulnerable to macro or geopolitical headlines that could send prices lower. Outlook: Volatility remains likely—watch South American crop estimates, U.S. weather, and

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge. Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.   Grains The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20. Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.   Dairy