Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes, lettuce, and onions continue to ease from earlier highs, though the pace of decline for tomatoes has slowed. Potatoes and 48-count Hass avocados showed renewed price strength. This uptick in potato prices is occurring earlier than the typical summer rally as old-crop supplies tighten. Avocado prices have jumped as Mexico’s main crop winds down earlier than normal, though other origins may fill some supply gaps. Outlook: Expect further upside for potatoes and avocados into the summer before new-crop supplies arrive (potatoes) or Mexico’s next harvest begins (avocados); tomatoes and lettuce should normalize gradually.   Grains Grains were mostly lower last week. However, soybean oil (SBO) has rallied for five consecutive sessions and cleared the ~$75/cwt resistance level. Further technical upside faces historic highs from 2022 and likely requires crude oil support to extend materially. Soybeans themselves showed little direction. Outlook: SBO could see

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were quieter last week as tomato, onion, and lettuce prices continued easing from recent highs. Roma tomato pricing has now fallen to its lowest point since March, while onion and lettuce markets are also gradually normalizing. Attention is beginning to shift toward avocados, where an earlier-than-usual crop transition in Mexico and weaker upcoming supply projections are expected to create tighter market conditions. Outlook: Operators should continue seeing some relief on tomatoes, onions, and lettuce over the next several weeks. Avocados, however, could become one of the more pressured produce categories this summer, with pricing expected to remain elevated through the seasonal crop transition.   Grains Grain markets were relatively quiet last week, with much of the movement tied to broader energy market activity and geopolitical developments. Early optimism surrounding a new U.S.-China agricultural purchase agreement briefly lifted corn markets, but prices quickly

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce, onions, and tomatoes remained the biggest pricing stories in produce last week. Onion markets were mostly flat to lower, signaling prices may be nearing their peak sooner than expected. Iceberg lettuce remains elevated with limited supply relief expected until later this month, while tomato prices continued climbing despite early signs of improving supply conditions. Outlook: Operators may start to see some relief on onions first, while lettuce and tomatoes could remain volatile through at least the remainder of May. Produce buyers should continue monitoring markets closely and stay flexible with menu planning where possible.   Grains Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all moved lower last week, reversing most of the prior week’s rally. Easing fertilizer concerns tied to geopolitical developments helped pressure markets overall. Wheat prices fell despite ongoing concerns surrounding lower yields and crop abandonment in Kansas, one of the country’s largest

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce costs remain elevated, with roma tomatoes surpassing $40 and iceberg lettuce continuing to climb past earlier highs. Onion prices are also at peak levels, particularly for red and white varieties. Outlook: Relief may begin mid-May as new supply comes online, but near-term pricing will stay elevated. Flexibility on menus will be key.   Grains Grain markets moved modestly higher, with soybeans seeing slight gains after more than a month of flat activity, largely driven by soybean oil strength. Outlook: Momentum feels uncertain. Without new demand drivers, expect continued volatility rather than sustained increases.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with butter slipping slightly and now trading below cheese—a shift not consistently seen since 2021. Cheese markets are stabilizing as global pricing begins to rebalance. Outlook: Butter may be nearing a floor, but strong production and softer demand will likely keep prices from climbing