Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices continued climbing due to ongoing supply challenges, while tomato prices are showing normal seasonal increases after returning to more typical levels. Most other produce markets remained relatively stable. Outlook: Lettuce will likely stay elevated until supplies recover, while tomatoes may continue a gradual seasonal climb through mid-July.   Grains Grain markets were mixed, with corn, soybeans, and wheat showing signs of stabilizing after recent declines, while soybean oil continued to weaken. Overall, markets remain influenced by energy prices and crop expectations. Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, but current trends suggest limited upward price pressure in the near term.   Dairy CME spot activity was active but most dairy markets trended lower for the week; nonfat dry milk hit near three-month lows as buyers delay purchases expecting cheaper prices, while butter has shown unexpected firmness despite lower international prices. U.S.

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce With tomatoes, yellow onions and avocados easing, lettuce—especially 24-count iceberg—became the main price story as multiple supply gaps pushed prices to a year-to-date high and created unusually volatile early‑year pricing. Supply constraints in both western and eastern growing regions have kept upward pressure on iceberg. Outlook: Buying pressure for lettuce should remain short term (1–2 weeks); broader relief likely won’t arrive until supply gaps close later in the season.   Grains Grain losses slowed last week; wheat even ticked higher after touching its 100‑day moving average, soybeans largely held ground, and corn rallied early in the week before pressure resumed on Thursday after larger South American production estimates and good U.S. rainfall. December soybean oil is testing the $70 area and remains vulnerable to macro or geopolitical headlines that could send prices lower. Outlook: Volatility remains likely—watch South American crop estimates, U.S. weather, and

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices surged more than 80% in the past two weeks to their highest level since May 2025 due to an early end to Mexico’s main harvest, with relief expected late in the month; 24-count iceberg lettuce showed a slight bounce but is expected to stay near the $20/carton level through summer before the typical September/October surge. Outlook: Avocado buying pressure should ease later this month as the Loca harvest begins earlier than usual, while lettuce prices remain range-bound near $20/carton for most of the summer.   Grains The grains sell-off continued, with soybeans joining the losses and weighing on soybean oil’s rally; corn declined amid shifting Corn Belt weather forecasts, with solid underlying demand even as the July contract approached $4.20. Outlook: Corn may find technical support and attempt a bounce, but negative momentum could push prices toward $4 before stabilization.   Dairy

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes, lettuce, and onions continue to ease from earlier highs, though the pace of decline for tomatoes has slowed. Potatoes and 48-count Hass avocados showed renewed price strength. This uptick in potato prices is occurring earlier than the typical summer rally as old-crop supplies tighten. Avocado prices have jumped as Mexico’s main crop winds down earlier than normal, though other origins may fill some supply gaps. Outlook: Expect further upside for potatoes and avocados into the summer before new-crop supplies arrive (potatoes) or Mexico’s next harvest begins (avocados); tomatoes and lettuce should normalize gradually.   Grains Grains were mostly lower last week. However, soybean oil (SBO) has rallied for five consecutive sessions and cleared the ~$75/cwt resistance level. Further technical upside faces historic highs from 2022 and likely requires crude oil support to extend materially. Soybeans themselves showed little direction. Outlook: SBO could see

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were quieter last week as tomato, onion, and lettuce prices continued easing from recent highs. Roma tomato pricing has now fallen to its lowest point since March, while onion and lettuce markets are also gradually normalizing. Attention is beginning to shift toward avocados, where an earlier-than-usual crop transition in Mexico and weaker upcoming supply projections are expected to create tighter market conditions. Outlook: Operators should continue seeing some relief on tomatoes, onions, and lettuce over the next several weeks. Avocados, however, could become one of the more pressured produce categories this summer, with pricing expected to remain elevated through the seasonal crop transition.   Grains Grain markets were relatively quiet last week, with much of the movement tied to broader energy market activity and geopolitical developments. Early optimism surrounding a new U.S.-China agricultural purchase agreement briefly lifted corn markets, but prices quickly