Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce 48-count Hass avocados climbed another 12.6% last week—their third consecutive week of gains—fitting typical August seasonal patterns. Meanwhile, 24-count iceberg lettuce fell 8.3% week-over-week, extending a five-week decline, though price drops are slowing and expected to hold above the $10 mark before fall transitions begin. Outlook: Avocado prices should cap around $60/carton before entering a September downtrend, while iceberg lettuce will offer temporary cost stability before typical September/October market volatility sets in.   Grains Grain markets pulled back across the board, giving up a solid portion of July’s gains. Wheat posted modest pullbacks despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. With Russia and Ukraine entering their peak August export window under active maritime shipping risks, wheat prices remain vulnerable to sudden market surges if export supply flows are restricted. Outlook: Expect heightened price volatility and upside risk for grains through late summer if Black Sea

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets remained relatively calm despite ongoing attention surrounding the cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce from Central Mexico. To date, the outbreak has had little impact on pricing, while iceberg lettuce appears to be stabilizing, avocados posted modest gains, and onion markets continue following normal seasonal trends. Outlook: Procurement teams should expect generally stable produce pricing, with only modest seasonal fluctuations anticipated over the coming weeks.   Grains Grain markets moved higher as geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices fueled renewed buying activity. Wheat experienced the strongest gains following disruptions affecting Russian export routes and continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea shipping. Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, making forward purchasing strategies and ongoing market monitoring increasingly valuable.   Dairy Cheese markets continued to strengthen, with block cheese prices climbing nearly 16% over the past month, while butter, dry whey, and nonfat

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce brought some welcome relief last week, especially in lettuce, where iceberg prices dropped sharply after several elevated weeks. Avocado prices also continued to ease, and while both markets may be nearing a floor, current levels are a much better buying environment than earlier in the season. Outlook: Lettuce and avocado pricing should stay more favorable in the near term, with lettuce likely stabilizing soon and avocados facing only modest upside risk into August.   Grains Grain markets were mostly stronger early in the week as hot Corn Belt weather raised production concerns, but cooler forecasts later in the week took some of that urgency out of the market. Wheat ended on a strong note, while corn still appears rangebound unless weather becomes more threatening. Outlook: Grains will remain highly weather-driven, but without a meaningful crop threat, prices may struggle to push much higher

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Most produce markets are relatively calm, but iceberg lettuce is standing out. Supplies remain snug, and pricing has climbed for four straight weeks, with cartons recently averaging around $16.95, up from $14.95 the prior week. Regional transition issues continue to limit relief. Outlook: Lettuce costs could remain choppy in the short term, so this is one category worth monitoring closely for menu-heavy operators.   Grains Corn, soybean, and wheat markets were mostly quiet heading into one of the most important USDA reporting windows of the season. Corn acreage expectations are sitting near 95 million acres, while soybean acreage is projected closer to 83.7 million acres, both of which could move markets depending on final government estimates. Outlook: Grain volatility may increase quickly as traders digest updated acreage and stock data, which could eventually affect feed and ingredient costs.   Dairy Dairy markets softened again

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices continued climbing due to ongoing supply challenges, while tomato prices are showing normal seasonal increases after returning to more typical levels. Most other produce markets remained relatively stable. Outlook: Lettuce will likely stay elevated until supplies recover, while tomatoes may continue a gradual seasonal climb through mid-July.   Grains Grain markets were mixed, with corn, soybeans, and wheat showing signs of stabilizing after recent declines, while soybean oil continued to weaken. Overall, markets remain influenced by energy prices and crop expectations. Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain volatile, but current trends suggest limited upward price pressure in the near term.   Dairy CME spot activity was active but most dairy markets trended lower for the week; nonfat dry milk hit near three-month lows as buyers delay purchases expecting cheaper prices, while butter has shown unexpected firmness despite lower international prices. U.S.