Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Avocados led produce moves — 48-count Hass climbed w/w, signaling an early start to the typical Feb–May seasonal rally. Cross-border volumes appear normal; demand seems the key push. Lettuce and tomatoes continued down toward ~$10 and are expected to level; tomatoes look calm for Q1 while lettuce can still see intermittent surges.
Outlook: Expect avocado prices to trend upward into spring; monitor lettuce for potential spikes late Q1 while tomatoes should remain relatively steady.
Grains
Corn led the action — March corn plunged ~5.4% on a surprisingly larger USDA national yield and higher harvested acreage, pushing 2025 production to ~17 billion bushels and Dec. 1 stocks to ~13.3 billion bushels. Later-week demand signals (record ethanol runs, flash export sales) were supportive but insufficient to offset heavy supplies.
Outlook: Abundant corn stocks keep downside risk unless sustained demand (ethanol, exports) materializes; any recovery will likely require months of stronger demand or a drop in acreage.
Dairy
Mixed week — CME butter $1.31/lb (+$0.01) with active retail demand and busy churning; CME blocks $1.29 (-$0.07) and barrels $1.36 (-$0.04) lower. Milk output strong, cheese production steady, and spot volumes plentiful post-holidays. YTD average block prices down vs. last year and five‑year average.
Outlook: Cheese prices face downside pressure from ample milk supplies; butter is supported by retail demand and active churning — expect a mixed near-term picture.
Beef
Cattle futures nudged higher (CME Feb cattle ~ $236.10/cwt, +~1%). Choice cutout $360.77 (+1%), select $359.71 (+2%). Ribs and loin items firmed (bone-in export ribs $8.86/lb; boneless heavy ribeyes $10.65/lb; choice tenderloin $14.50/lb). End cuts mostly firmer; ground beef 81% $3.77 (+$0.11). Trim markets advanced (50% trim $1.55; 90% $4.05).
Outlook: Near-term price pressure may ease if planned plant downtime reduces slaughter, but lower production could support cutout values — expect a mostly range-bound market into February.
Pork
Pork cutout rose slightly to $93.60/cwt with most primals firmer. Loin primal $87.53 (+4%); boneless loins $1.31 (+$0.02); loin/baby back ribs $2.68 (+$0.09). Pork butt primal softened to $108.55 (-4%) though significant export sales (185 loads boneless butts) supported demand. Rib and belly primals up (ribs $176.34; belly $124.59). Trim and ham values rose (42% trim $0.58; ham $86.71, +7%).
Outlook: Cutout has held up despite higher harvest; ribs and hams driving strength while butts remain pressured—watch continued export activity and slaughter volumes for direction.
Poultry
USDA young chicken harvest was 145.3 million head for the holiday week (+7% y/y). National Composite WOGs rose $0.01 to $1.20/lb. White meat movements were mixed: boneless/skinless breasts $1.19 (+$0.02; +3% m/m, -19% y/y), tenderloins $1.40 (flat; +1% m/m, -17% y/y). Wings edged to $0.99 (slightly higher w/w; +1% m/m, -48% y/y). Drumsticks eased to $0.53 (-$0.02). Boneless/skinless thigh $1.26 (+$0.03; +2.7% m/m) while B/I thighs were $0.61 (+$0.01). Turkey breasts and whole B/I turkeys were flat w/w but remain well above year-ago levels (boneless turkey breasts +198% y/y). Egg shell-index plunged (large eggs -24% w/w, -61% m/m; -87% y/y vs. HPAI-impacted 2024 levels).
Outlook: Steady as she goes — demand remains resilient while supplies continue gradual recovery; expect relatively stable to modestly firmer prices for white meat and continued pressure on shell eggs as flocks rebuild.
Seafood
Yellowfin tuna remains weak — after a strong start to 2025 prices collapsed, with Oct data showing a new seasonal low. Recent import volumes ticked up unexpectedly, pressuring prices further even as early-Jan prices may have firmed a bit.
Outlook: Expect continued softness in yellowfin through late spring as imports and seasonal patterns weigh on prices; significant upside looks unlikely near-term.