Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Avocados hit a new low at $45/carton, though supply concerns may push prices higher later this summer. Idaho potatoes continued their steady climb, and iceberg lettuce gained 7% w/w. Roma tomatoes rose again but are likely nearing a short-term plateau.
Outlook: Expect modest produce price changes in the near term, with possible late-summer volatility in avocados. Iceberg and tomatoes could rally again as fall approaches.
Grains
Grain markets were fairly quiet, with soybeans making the biggest move—rallying nearly 3% after initial bearish news was offset by strong crush data and biofuel optimism.
Outlook: Watch for volatility in soybeans as the market responds to shifting demand signals and ongoing speculation around biofuel mandates. Other grains are expected to remain stable for now.
Dairy
Butter, block cheese, and barrel cheese all dropped slightly last week. Despite tightening cream and milk supply in some regions, manufacturers are mostly keeping pace with demand.
Outlook: Cheese and butter markets should remain steady with minor fluctuations. High temperatures may continue to limit milk output, but widespread shortages are unlikely.
Beef
While live cattle futures were up 2%, beef cutout values declined last week. Choice ribeyes were one of the few cuts to rise, while loins, chucks, and rounds saw price drops. Ground beef and trim prices were mixed, with 81% lean slightly up and 50% trim falling.
Outlook: Look for beef prices to trend downward as packers cut harvest volumes to manage costs. Lower demand post-holiday and high cattle prices will continue to pressure margins.
Pork
The pork cutout rose 2% last week even as hog futures fell. Loins, tenderloins, bellies, and hams all saw price increases, while pork butts and ribs moved lower. Export demand for pork butts dropped notably.
Outlook: We anticipate mixed pricing in the near term with a softening market overall. Hams may strengthen closer to the holiday season, but lean hogs and most other cuts could trend down.
Poultry
Chicken prices were mostly down last week, with boneless/skinless breasts dropping $0.06 to $1.89/lb and tenderloins down slightly. Wings continued to climb, up for the seventh week in a row, now at $1.54/lb. Thigh meat was mixed, with boneless/skinless down $0.10. Egg prices rose 4% w/w.
Outlook: Expect overall chicken prices to trend lower in the short term due to seasonal dips and tariff impacts, but white meat demand should stay steady thanks to its affordability.
Seafood
Cod prices continued their sharp decline, down over 10% month-over-month, following a surge earlier this year. Tilapia is seeing similar downward pressure, though it may be closer to seasonal norms.
Outlook: Cod is likely to keep trending down over the next couple of months before stabilizing. Both proteins could offer more budget-friendly menu opportunities heading into fall.
