Insights / Commodities Report

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell 4.7% w/w but remain elevated, with little relief expected before summer. Yellow onions stabilized at a three-year low of $6/sack, while romas and lettuce held steady. A potential Q1/Q2 lettuce supply gap remains unpredictable.   Grain The grains sector declined but found support after the U.S. delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods. While U.S.-Canada talks remain tense, Mexico’s continued demand for U.S. corn and wheat offers some optimism. Meanwhile, soybeans face pressure from China’s stockpiling and Brazil’s record crop.   Dairy Dairy markets saw sharp declines, with CME blocks dropping 15% to $1.63/lb and barrels down 8% to $1.66/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.04 to $2.30/lb, with domestic demand steady but international buyers showing strong interest.   Beef Beef prices remained steady, with the choice cutout at $199.25/cwt. The rib complex strengthened, with bone-in export ribs up 6% to $8.87/lb. Ground beef 81%

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices spiked 7.6% to their highest level since June 2022, with little relief expected until summer. Iceberg lettuce dropped 18% w/w, erasing January gains, while yellow onions unexpectedly fell but should stabilize soon. Roma tomatoes remain steady, with potential price increases after April.   Grain Corn prices declined as ethanol stocks surged to near-record levels and U.S. tariff threats on Mexican imports raised export concerns. The USDA projected 2025 corn planting at 94 million acres, a sharp increase from 90.6 million last year, which could pressure prices further.   Dairy The dairy market softened, with CME blocks down $0.03 to $1.87/lb and butter falling $0.08 to $2.34/lb. Cheese demand from retail and foodservice remained steady, but buyers are purchasing fewer butter loads than seasonally expected.   Beef Beef prices were stable, with the choice cutout at $311.83/cwt and select at $302.18/cwt. The rib

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices rebounded 11.7% w/w, stalling their downward trend, with stability expected until late April or May. Iceberg lettuce unexpectedly fell 7.1% w/w despite ongoing concerns about cold weather impacts, signaling a potential short-term price ceiling between $20-$30/carton.   Grain Wheat markets remained strong, driven by cold weather concerns in the U.S. and Russia. U.S. wheat export sales outperformed expectations, and with global supply already tight, prices should hold onto recent gains even if winterkill damage is minimal.   Dairy The dairy market was mixed, with CME blocks down $0.02 to $1.90/lb and barrels falling 3% to $1.78/lb. Butter prices rose $0.03 to $2.43/lb, supported by strong cream supply, while cheese demand remained steady across retail and foodservice.   Beef Beef prices continued to decline, with the choice cutout down 2% to $312.62/cwt. Rib prices were mixed, with bone-in exports dropping 8% but boneless

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices fell another 9.5% w/w and should continue declining before stabilizing near $50/carton. Iceberg lettuce climbed 15% w/w due to cold weather impacts, though the price rally is unlikely to reach last year’s highs. Roma tomatoes remained stable, with no supply issues expected.   Grain Corn markets surged on strong export sales and new tariffs on Brazilian ethanol imports, boosting demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. While traders were disappointed by minimal WASDE report changes, the outlook remains positive as the market watches for upcoming planting data.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks up 3% to $1.91/lb and barrels up 2% to $1.83/lb, signaling strengthening demand. Butter prices held steady at $2.40/lb as cream supply remained abundant. Retail promotions increased, while retail prices trended lower.   Beef Beef prices softened, with the choice cutout down 2% to $317.40/cwt as February remains

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets face ongoing challenges due to the transition from Salinas to Yuma and compounded by past weather effects, pests, and incoming cold temperatures. Supplies of key items like broccoli, endive, and escarole remain tight, with limited availability projected through November, while extreme shortages are expected for items like bok choy and artichokes. Avocado volumes from Mexico look strong heading into the Super Bowl, though small sizes will dominate until late December. In the Southeast, crop volatility from hurricane damage is impacting numerous crops, including citrus, tomatoes, and peppers, signaling potential price increases and quality issues in the coming weeks.   Grain Soybean oil (SBO) prices surged to a three-month high, influenced by rising palm oil futures, increased biofuel demand in Indonesia, and a recent flash sale of 30,000 metric tons of SBO to India, marking the first sale since March 2022. India’s significant

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce market faces ongoing challenges as growers transition between regions, with lasting effects from heat, pest issues, and recent hurricanes impacting availability and prices. Romaine, iceberg lettuce, broccoli, and other leafy greens are seeing reduced volumes due to heat stress and pest damage, while crops in the Southeast, including citrus and tomatoes, are heavily affected by recent hurricanes, leading to significant supply losses. High demand persists for items like avocados and table grapes, though the grape season may end early due to heat-related losses, and mushrooms remain constrained across all varieties.   Grain The grains market remained relatively stable, with soybean oil and corn seeing slight gains. Soybean oil’s increase was largely driven by rising palm oil prices, though U.S. fundamentals may not support a prolonged rally. Corn export sales, however, continued at an impressive pace, with recent sales totaling 3.6 million metric

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The combination of heat, ongoing pest pressures, and severe weather issues in the eastern U.S. will continue to create challenges in the coming weeks. We will closely monitor the situation and keep everyone updated as we navigate through what promises to be a hectic October for the industry. Although the weather in Salinas has cooled slightly, the lingering effects of recent heat will continue to be felt. Certain crops, including endive, escarole, leeks, cilantro, and fennel, remain escalated, with bok choy at an extreme trigger point due to light supplies.   Grain Soybean oil futures moved lower last week with excellent crop progress 10% above last year. Last week the WASDE report from the USDA was not very impactful to the market. Canola seed futures rose, Canola oil moved slightly higher. Palm continues to be higher. Corn, soybeans, meal, oil, and wheat all moved

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Hurricanes Helene and Milton, combined with unfavorable weather in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, as well as port delays and insect pressure in California, are causing significant disruptions to multiple commodities. Market prices remain high, and yields from the East are considerably lower. With the devastation from Hurricane Helene across the Southeast and Florida now hit by Hurricane Milton, the supply of fresh produce from South Georgia and Florida is expected to be extremely volatile. Impacted commodities include Citrus, Corn, Cotton, Tomatoes, Bell Pepper, Eggplant, Peanuts, Strawberries, and more.   Grain Soybean oil futures moved higher with increased energy costs which is impacting palm and Canola, too. The energy markets are much higher because of tensions in the middle east.   Dairy Shell egg markets are up this week. California and Northwest markets are up. Many buyers, anticipating a potential market uptick, are looking

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Hurricane Helene, unfavorable weather patterns across the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, port delays, and insect pressure in California are affecting multiple commodities. These issues have led to continued higher market prices and lower overall yields.   Grain Soybean oil futures traded higher last week with concerns of dry South American weather ahead of their planting. Crude oil moved higher, Canola, was higher, and palm oil were higher, too. There is also a strike looming by the Longshoreman which will disrupt imports and exports for all agricultural products.   Dairy Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are flat. The Block & Barrel are decreasing. Butter is down. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential impacts of Hurricane Helene and port strikes along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.   Beef The SE Region demand is being impacted by hurricane Helene.

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Hurricane Helene, unfavorable weather patterns in the U.S., Mexico, and Guatemala, and insect pressure in California are affecting multiple commodities. These issues have led to continued higher market prices and lower overall yields.   Grain Soybean oil futures traded higher with reports of very tight stocks with good biofuel demand. Canola has moved higher with speculative trading. Palm continues to move higher and is pressuring soybean oil. Olive oil has flattened as oil stocks are poor and demand has increased with the lower market.   Dairy Shell egg markets are down this week. California and Northwest markets are down. After a 55% drop over the past four weeks, breaking stock values appear to have hit a point of stabilization. The Block is decreasing & Barrel are increasing. Barrel hit a record high and the spread between barrel and Block has widened. Butter is down.