Insights / Commodities Report

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 64

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomato prices plateaued just shy of $15/carton after a five-week rally. However, possible tariffs on Mexican imports could raise prices again later this fall. Iceberg lettuce prices dropped nearly 15% week-over-week. Avocados are trending lower, but prices may briefly rise in August due to typical supply issues. Potatoes continue their slow, pre-harvest climb. Outlook: Expect a temporary break in tomato and lettuce prices before they edge higher again in Q4. Watch out for potential volatility in avocados, and plan ahead for continued slow increases in potato prices.   Grains Corn prices dropped 2.1% despite extreme heat in the Corn Belt. Traders are waiting for crop condition ratings to decline before reacting. Export sales are strong, but not yet enough to shift market sentiment. Soybean oil was the only grain product to see an increase last week. Outlook: Corn prices may remain soft until

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 63

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados hit a new low at $45/carton, though supply concerns may push prices higher later this summer. Idaho potatoes continued their steady climb, and iceberg lettuce gained 7% w/w. Roma tomatoes rose again but are likely nearing a short-term plateau. Outlook: Expect modest produce price changes in the near term, with possible late-summer volatility in avocados. Iceberg and tomatoes could rally again as fall approaches.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet, with soybeans making the biggest move—rallying nearly 3% after initial bearish news was offset by strong crush data and biofuel optimism. Outlook: Watch for volatility in soybeans as the market responds to shifting demand signals and ongoing speculation around biofuel mandates. Other grains are expected to remain stable for now.   Dairy Butter, block cheese, and barrel cheese all dropped slightly last week. Despite tightening cream and milk supply in some regions,

Vegetables

Commodities Report 62

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices have nearly tripled since mid-June—an unusual time for such a spike—and could climb further before cooling off. Idaho potatoes are also rallying ahead of harvest, up 40% in the last month. Expect price volatility to continue into fall, especially for lettuce. Outlook: Be prepared for additional produce swings, with lettuce and potatoes leading the charge. Strategic purchasing will be key through September.   Grains & Oils Grain markets dipped again last week, with corn taking the hardest hit. Record U.S. and Brazil crop projections, paired with strong export reports, couldn’t hold prices up. Despite high export volumes, optimism over trade deals didn’t materialize, adding pressure. Outlook: Corn exports remain strong, but oversupply continues to weigh on prices. Any new trade developments could change momentum, but for now, the trend remains downward.   Dairy Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat to

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 61

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Leafy greens like iceberg and romaine are seeing higher markets due to weather-related yield drops—expect firm pricing to continue. Brussels, broccoli, and cauliflower are also elevated, but quality is holding. Bell peppers and squash are tight on both coasts, especially colored varieties and yellow squash. Tomatoes and celery remain steady with good volume and quality. Avocados and lemons are tight, and grapes are off to a slower start in California, keeping green varieties priced high. Keep your eye on potatoes and onions—both are stable for now, but late-season risks linger. Grains & Oils Volatility in the soybean oil market continues to make headlines, largely driven by global tensions and biofuel policies. While prices dipped last week, they’re still unpredictable. Canola and palm oils are down too, which could bring short-term relief on frying oil costs. Stay flexible if oil plays a big role in

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 60

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices surprised to the downside, falling 18 % to a YTD low and dipping below last year for the first time since July 2024. Iceberg lettuce popped 35 % yet sits squarely in its normal seasonal range, while Idaho potato counts have begun their customary pre-harvest climb. Virus chatter in Western lettuce fields bears watching, but nothing has spooked the market yet. Outlook: Avocado pricing should stay soft into August; lettuce likely holds steady until a September lift, and potatoes may grind up toward $15/carton over the next month before new-crop pressure sets in.   Grains & Oilseeds Winter wheat surrendered the prior week’s geopolitically driven gains, and soybean oil followed crude lower despite a bullish long-term biofuel outlook. Traders braced for potentially bearish acreage and stocks data in today’s USDA reports, which could dictate short-term direction. The wheat harvest is still 9

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 59

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocado prices ended their 11-week slide with a minor uptick. Roma tomatoes dropped another 1.5%, though losses have slowed compared to May. Outlook: While avocados are entering their most volatile season, pricing is not expected to spike dramatically. Tomato prices may see short-term corrective strength but are unlikely to trend upward until September.   Grain The grain market paused last week after the EPA’s renewable volume announcement. Wheat led gains amid a delayed U.S. harvest and geopolitical concerns, though Chicago wheat was the primary mover. Outlook: Wheat prices may retreat by early July as harvest delays resolve. Expect short-lived volatility, but no sustained price run-ups unless weather issues persist into mid-summer. Dairy Cheese and butter prices dipped slightly despite steady retail demand. Blocks and barrels both landed at $1.69/lb. Cream availability remains tight in some areas, and butter remains competitively priced for export markets.

Vegetables

Commodities Report 58

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados held steady for the first time in weeks, but prices are still expected to dip. Roma tomatoes fell again but may rebound soon. Iceberg lettuce stayed flat, but viral pressure could bring a price spike. Outlook: Avocado and tomato pricing should remain favorable for a bit longer, but lettuce is one to watch for volatility heading into midsummer.   Grain Soybean oil rallied after the EPA’s RVO announcement for 2026–2027, boosting demand expectations for biomass-based diesel. After a brief drop, the market surged on Friday, especially in soybean-linked commodities. Outlook: The long-term path for soybean oil looks bullish, especially with biofuel demand driving renewed interest in domestic feedstocks.   Dairy Cheese prices dipped slightly despite strong production and firm demand. Butter was flat at $2.55/lb, supported by international demand and steady domestic buying. Outlook: With inventories healthy and retail promotions rising, prices may

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 57

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes dropped another 15% w/w, falling to $9.48/cs—more than 33% over two weeks. Iceberg lettuce and avocados also held steady or declined, nearing seasonal lows. Crop transitions have been smooth with no major quality issues. Outlook: Produce prices are leveling out near annual lows. Take advantage of this predictability to manage costs and promote produce-forward items.   Grain Wheat markets remain the focus, with spring wheat leading due to weather concerns abroad. U.S. winter wheat ratings improved, applying downward pressure on prices despite global supply concerns. Outlook: Grain pricing could soften slightly unless new weather disruptions arise. Monitor closely to optimize timing of forward buys.   Dairy Butter climbed to $2.49/lb while cheese prices stayed flat, supported by stronger milk supply and active retail promotions. Nonfat dry milk also rose $0.06 to $1.29/lb as export demand remains strong. Outlook: Watch for gradual increases

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 56

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Market stability continued across the produce sector. Roma tomatoes saw a one-week dip of 22%, though prices are expected to stay within normal seasonal ranges. Iceberg lettuce was unchanged, and avocados declined again, narrowing their y/y gap to 29%. Outlook: No major disruptions are anticipated. With prices holding in predictable patterns, this is a good time for operators to lean into produce-forward menu planning.   Grain Grain markets softened despite active news cycles. Tariff developments were largely shrugged off by traders, while attention turned to weather and crop progress. Corn crop ratings fell below expectations, but above-average rainfall forecasts kept the market from reacting strongly. Outlook: While current pressure is keeping grains in check, any major shift in weather could impact pricing. Operators should monitor market reports closely and evaluate coverage strategies.   Dairy Dairy pricing ticked upward, particularly in butter, which rose $0.13/lb

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 55

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce No major volatility last week. Romas were flat after recent gains, iceberg ticked up slightly, and avocados trended downward. Yellow onions may find some lift next month, but movement will likely be modest. Outlook: Produce pricing is expected to stabilize through the summer. Short-term surprises appear unlikely.   Grain Grain markets rebounded, led by wheat. Outside financial market concerns and international buying helped fuel the rally. Wheat pricing is now at its highest seasonal level in 12 years. Outlook: Expect ongoing volatility in the grains sector, especially if global weather issues and currency shifts persist.   Dairy CME blocks climbed to $1.95/lb and barrels to $1.87/lb. Butter moved up slightly to $2.36/lb. Retail cheese demand is steady, foodservice slightly weaker, but export strength continues. Outlook: With strong milk availability and consistent global demand, dairy prices are likely to trend stable with mild upward pressure.