Insights / Commodities Report

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 77

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets remain active as cooler weather tightens supply. Iceberg lettuce prices rose another 16% week-over-week to a new year-to-date high, while tomato markets took center stage with large romas jumping nearly 60%, erasing several weeks of losses. Avocados inched higher for only the third time since March, stabilizing near $30 per carton. Outlook: Expect firm pricing on lettuce and tomatoes as growing regions transition and demand stays strong. Avocado markets should remain steady heading into November.   Grains Corn, soybeans, and soybean meal all posted solid gains, breaking through technical resistance levels and finishing the week higher. Traders appear optimistic about potential trade progress with China, though no official news has confirmed that outlook. Analysts note that fund activity and speculative buying likely drove the sudden rally. Outlook: Grain markets may remain choppy as traders wait for firmer signals on export demand and

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 76

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices surged again, up another 16% week-over-week, on pace to hit new highs by mid-November due to ongoing supply issues. Tomato prices slipped slightly but could stabilize soon as weather impacts in Mexico limit supply. Outlook: Expect lettuce prices to stay high for a few more weeks before dropping toward the end of the year. Tomatoes may see mild price support if supply remains constrained.   Grains Grain markets finally caught a small break, posting modest gains last week. Soybeans avoided a deeper drop thanks to a strong September crush report, though trade tensions with China continue to weigh on sentiment. Outlook: Soybean prices are expected to stay rangebound near $10–$10.30 until progress is made on trade negotiations. A prolonged standoff could push prices lower.   Dairy Dairy prices were mixed last week. Butter dropped $0.03 to $1.63/lb as producers focused on retail

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 75

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce markets exploded higher, with 24-count iceberg jumping 77% week-over-week—the strongest rally since last fall. Persistent disease pressures and seasonal shifts have reignited the West Coast lettuce surge. Outlook: Expect prices to keep climbing for the next 3–4 weeks, likely setting new year-to-date highs near the $40 mark before stabilizing in late November.   Grains The grains market stayed quiet amid limited government data. Soybeans saw a brief lift on trade optimism but settled lower as attention shifted to the upcoming U.S.–China meeting. Outlook: Without fresh export momentum, November soybeans could slip back below $10. Overall, grain markets may remain range-bound until clearer trade and harvest data emerges.   Dairy Dairy prices softened across the board. Butter dropped $0.15 to $1.60/lb as churns prioritized retail packaging for the holidays, while cheese blocks fell slightly to $1.76/lb. Milk production improved, and export demand remains strong.

Vegetables

Commodities Report 74

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce finally bounced after weeks of decline, climbing 12% off recent lows, while other lettuce varieties continued trending down. Roma tomatoes fell 13% but could soon stabilize near $10/carton as prices hit a seasonal floor. Avocados and other key items held steady, offering relief to operators managing fresh costs. Outlook: Produce prices may trend sideways for now, with gradual increases likely heading into the winter months.   Grains Soybeans got a brief lift last week after trade headlines suggested potential talks between the U.S. and China. Still, analysts warn that timing may limit any real export gains as the U.S. season winds down. Corn and wheat markets were relatively steady despite high global supply pressure. Outlook: Grains may stay rangebound near term, though trade developments could add short-term volatility.   Dairy The dairy complex was mixed as butter and cheese gained momentum ahead

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 73

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The produce market stayed calm this week. Roma tomatoes corrected downward after last week’s spike, and iceberg lettuce slipped slightly but looks to be stabilizing. No major crop disruptions are on the horizon, though prices may edge up into November as seasonal shifts take hold. Outlook: Expect modest price increases heading into the holidays as cooler weather impacts yields. Consider featuring produce-forward dishes now while costs remain steady.   Grains Grain markets moved mostly lower as corn and wheat struggled to maintain momentum. Corn export demand remains strong — hitting a new record pace — but prices couldn’t sustain gains. Wheat held firm on improved export activity. Outlook: Despite strong export demand, futures remain under pressure, which could translate into lower feed costs for proteins later this fall.   Dairy Dairy prices were mixed this week — cheese blocks eased $0.04 to $1.64/lb while

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 72

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes soared 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton—the highest since January. Iceberg lettuce continued to weaken, nearing YTD lows around $10/carton. Outlook: Tomato prices may not sustain their sharp rally, but levels should stay elevated heading into November. Iceberg looks set to bottom soon, with prices expected to rebound modestly into Q4, though not likely to reach prior ceiling targets.   Grains Corn saw back-and-forth movement following USDA’s September reports. Added acreage and higher export projections kept a lid on rallies, with futures unable to push above $4.30. Outlook: Without fresh catalysts, corn prices likely drift lower in the near term. Operators should expect steady to softer flour and feed costs.   Dairy CME blocks climbed to $1.68/lb while barrels held at $1.64/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.12 to $1.81/lb. Cheese production is steady with mixed demand, while butter makers are ramping up for holiday runs

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 71

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Leafy greens are steady out of Salinas with mostly good quality, though heat remains a watchpoint. Tomatoes are mixed depending on region, with grape and cherry sizes showing tighter supply. Potatoes and onions are stable with new-crop supply helping balance markets. Avocados are available but with size variability, while berries remain variable in both supply and quality depending on district. Outlook: Greens could firm slightly if heat affects yields. Tomatoes and berries are likely to remain inconsistent in the short term. Potatoes and onions should stay steady. Operators should plan for flexibility in salad builds and be ready with substitutions on fresh fruit offerings.   Grains Grain markets are steady, with flour supported by adequate harvest progress. Bakers and operators relying on wheat-based goods are seeing relief compared to earlier in the year, though logistics costs remain a factor to watch. Outlook: Expect mostly

Vegetables

Commodities Report 70

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados stayed steady around $30/carton, with healthy supply. Roma tomatoes dipped again, but the decline likely won’t last long. Iceberg lettuce eased a bit, though prices are expected to climb into October. Outlook: Expect mostly steady produce markets, but operators should budget for firmer lettuce pricing in the coming weeks.   Grains Corn continues its rally, with strong export demand lifting sales to record seasonal highs. Prices are nearing technical resistance at $4.30/bu. Outlook: Without fresh bullish news, corn prices could flatten out in the coming weeks.   Dairy Cheese blocks and barrels slipped to the mid-$1.70s/lb, and butter softened to $2.01/lb. Demand from retail is steady, though foodservice sales are down compared to last year. Outlook: Butter demand looks stronger internationally, while cheese prices may remain under pressure with steady production and inventories.   Beef The beef market was flat to slightly weaker,

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 69

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce continues its sharp rally, nearly doubling in four weeks on tight Western yields. Tomatoes slipped after a short-lived bump but remain poised to firm through fall. Avocados have stabilized near $30/carton as Mexico transitions crop cycles. Outlook: Expect high lettuce pricing to persist into late December. Tomatoes will likely climb steadily into November. Avocados look set for a quieter finish to the year.   Grains Markets were calm overall, with spring wheat seeing unusual volatility midweek but recovering by Friday. Soybean oil erased recent gains and is once again testing its long-term moving average. Outlook: Wheat looks stable heading into harvest updates. SBO may rebound from current levels given past technical support.   Dairy Cheese blocks and barrels both closed at $1.78/lb, with steady demand at retail and abroad. Butter dropped sharply to $2.08/lb, continuing its month-long slide, though prices remain above

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 68

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce led the charge higher. Iceberg prices jumped 10.5% w/w, and with the September–November rally approaching, prices are unlikely to ease soon. Roma tomatoes corrected higher after sharp summer losses. Outlook: Tomato markets should steady in the short term, but lettuce is primed for another extended rally, potentially pushing toward last year’s highs.   Grains Corn and soybeans found rare strength after the Pro Farmer crop tour revealed weaker yields in key states like Iowa and Illinois versus USDA estimates. Wheat managed slight gains. Outlook: Lower yield expectations sparked a rally, but Minnesota’s bumper crop could offset some national losses. Markets will stay weather- and report-driven.   Dairy Butter led declines, dropping $0.04 to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets were steady to weaker. Milk supplies remain tight as heat impacts cow comfort, though retail and export cheese demand is stable. Outlook: Butter demand