Alerts & What’s Trending
Produce
Roma tomatoes soared 31.7% w/w to $17.16/carton—the highest since January. Iceberg lettuce continued to weaken, nearing YTD lows around $10/carton.
Outlook: Tomato prices may not sustain their sharp rally, but levels should stay elevated heading into November. Iceberg looks set to bottom soon, with prices expected to rebound modestly into Q4, though not likely to reach prior ceiling targets.
Grains
Corn saw back-and-forth movement following USDA’s September reports. Added acreage and higher export projections kept a lid on rallies, with futures unable to push above $4.30.
Outlook: Without fresh catalysts, corn prices likely drift lower in the near term. Operators should expect steady to softer flour and feed costs.
Dairy
CME blocks climbed to $1.68/lb while barrels held at $1.64/lb. Butter prices slipped $0.12 to $1.81/lb. Cheese production is steady with mixed demand, while butter makers are ramping up for holiday runs with plenty of cream available.
Outlook: Butter may stay under pressure in the short term before holiday demand strengthens. Cheese looks steady-to-firm as milk supplies improve.
Beef
The beef cutout trended lower with choice down 4% and select down 5%. Rib and loin complexes were mixed—tenderloins reached another YTD high at $20.27/lb while end cuts and trim weakened. Ground beef 81% slid $0.28 to $3.60/lb.
Outlook: Expect beef cutout values to soften further into fall. Holiday cuts (tenderloins, ribs) should lose steam in October before strengthening later in Q4. Cattle-on-feed data could give live cattle prices a lift next month.
Pork
Hog futures and cash prices both slipped 1%. The pork cutout closed at $111.95/cwt, pressured by hams and bellies. Loins and ribs held firmer, but tenderloins and bellies trended down. Trim values were mixed.
Outlook: Lean hog cash prices are trending softer, and pork cutout values are projected to remain mixed-to-lower in the near term, largely due to weak demand and tariff uncertainty.
Poultry
Chicken harvest dropped w/w but remains higher y/y. White meat prices took another sharp dive: boneless breasts down $0.17 to $1.65/lb and tenders down $0.14 to $2.15/lb. Wings eased to $1.60/lb, down 30% y/y. Thigh meat was mostly steady, while turkey markets were mixed—boneless breasts surged, whole birds softened. Eggs held flat but are still well below last year.
Outlook: Breast meat and tenders likely to stay flat or fall through September, while thigh meat may firm with retail promotions. Operators should lean into value cuts like thighs and drums for menu cost control.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock extended its losing streak, down 10% m/m—the sharpest drop yet—pushing prices toward a potential seven-year low.
Outlook: Some moderate strength may surface later this fall, but January’s $1.61/lb average likely stands as the 2025 high. Overall seafood sector remains under broad pricing pressure.