Insights / Matthew Carpilio

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 85

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados led produce moves — 48-count Hass climbed w/w, signaling an early start to the typical Feb–May seasonal rally. Cross-border volumes appear normal; demand seems the key push. Lettuce and tomatoes continued down toward ~$10 and are expected to level; tomatoes look calm for Q1 while lettuce can still see intermittent surges. Outlook: Expect avocado prices to trend upward into spring; monitor lettuce for potential spikes late Q1 while tomatoes should remain relatively steady.   Grains Corn led the action — March corn plunged ~5.4% on a surprisingly larger USDA national yield and higher harvested acreage, pushing 2025 production to ~17 billion bushels and Dec. 1 stocks to ~13.3 billion bushels. Later-week demand signals (record ethanol runs, flash export sales) were supportive but insufficient to offset heavy supplies. Outlook: Abundant corn stocks keep downside risk unless sustained demand (ethanol, exports) materializes; any recovery will

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 84

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce As anticipated, lettuce and tomato prices opened the new year on a downward trend following their late 2024 highs. Iceberg lettuce has seen a consistent decline and is expected to stabilize around $10/carton, likely remaining within a $10-$20 range for the first half of the year. Roma tomatoes, after a slight December rebound, are also trending lower. The focus is expected to shift towards avocados, which have been under pressure but may see an uptrend beginning in February. Outlook: Expect stable to declining prices for lettuce and tomatoes in the near term, with potential for an uptrend in avocados starting next month.   Grains The grains market was quiet at the start of the new year, with all eyes on the upcoming USDA report. Corn is particularly poised for potential movement based on yield estimates, while soybeans and wheat could also see shifts. The