Insights / Commodities Report

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Leafy greens are steady out of Salinas with mostly good quality, though heat remains a watchpoint. Tomatoes are mixed depending on region, with grape and cherry sizes showing tighter supply. Potatoes and onions are stable with new-crop supply helping balance markets. Avocados are available but with size variability, while berries remain variable in both supply and quality depending on district. Outlook: Greens could firm slightly if heat affects yields. Tomatoes and berries are likely to remain inconsistent in the short term. Potatoes and onions should stay steady. Operators should plan for flexibility in salad builds and be ready with substitutions on fresh fruit offerings.   Grains Grain markets are steady, with flour supported by adequate harvest progress. Bakers and operators relying on wheat-based goods are seeing relief compared to earlier in the year, though logistics costs remain a factor to watch. Outlook: Expect mostly

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados stayed steady around $30/carton, with healthy supply. Roma tomatoes dipped again, but the decline likely won’t last long. Iceberg lettuce eased a bit, though prices are expected to climb into October. Outlook: Expect mostly steady produce markets, but operators should budget for firmer lettuce pricing in the coming weeks.   Grains Corn continues its rally, with strong export demand lifting sales to record seasonal highs. Prices are nearing technical resistance at $4.30/bu. Outlook: Without fresh bullish news, corn prices could flatten out in the coming weeks.   Dairy Cheese blocks and barrels slipped to the mid-$1.70s/lb, and butter softened to $2.01/lb. Demand from retail is steady, though foodservice sales are down compared to last year. Outlook: Butter demand looks stronger internationally, while cheese prices may remain under pressure with steady production and inventories.   Beef The beef market was flat to slightly weaker,

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce continues its sharp rally, nearly doubling in four weeks on tight Western yields. Tomatoes slipped after a short-lived bump but remain poised to firm through fall. Avocados have stabilized near $30/carton as Mexico transitions crop cycles. Outlook: Expect high lettuce pricing to persist into late December. Tomatoes will likely climb steadily into November. Avocados look set for a quieter finish to the year.   Grains Markets were calm overall, with spring wheat seeing unusual volatility midweek but recovering by Friday. Soybean oil erased recent gains and is once again testing its long-term moving average. Outlook: Wheat looks stable heading into harvest updates. SBO may rebound from current levels given past technical support.   Dairy Cheese blocks and barrels both closed at $1.78/lb, with steady demand at retail and abroad. Butter dropped sharply to $2.08/lb, continuing its month-long slide, though prices remain above

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce led the charge higher. Iceberg prices jumped 10.5% w/w, and with the September–November rally approaching, prices are unlikely to ease soon. Roma tomatoes corrected higher after sharp summer losses. Outlook: Tomato markets should steady in the short term, but lettuce is primed for another extended rally, potentially pushing toward last year’s highs.   Grains Corn and soybeans found rare strength after the Pro Farmer crop tour revealed weaker yields in key states like Iowa and Illinois versus USDA estimates. Wheat managed slight gains. Outlook: Lower yield expectations sparked a rally, but Minnesota’s bumper crop could offset some national losses. Markets will stay weather- and report-driven.   Dairy Butter led declines, dropping $0.04 to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets were steady to weaker. Milk supplies remain tight as heat impacts cow comfort, though retail and export cheese demand is stable. Outlook: Butter demand

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Markets held steady after recent volatility. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes were stable, though romas are expected to rise through fall. Potatoes remain quiet, suggesting the pre-harvest rally is behind us. Outlook: Watch for typical seasonal price runups in September and October, particularly on lettuce and tomatoes, while potatoes could soften further into year-end.   Grains The USDA’s WASDE report brought a bearish surprise for corn with yield projections raised sharply, while soybeans turned bullish. Corn production outlooks surged well above trade expectations, creating a heavy supply picture. Outlook: Corn prices face extended headwinds from burdensome supply, while soybeans may see firmer footing given tighter balance sheets.   Dairy Cheese markets were mixed, with blocks easing but barrels slightly higher. Butter was the biggest mover, falling on soft foodservice demand as cream supplies loosen. Milk production remains seasonally low but adequate. Outlook: Cheese demand

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce reversed recent declines, spiking to $25.49/carton due to light weights and disease risk in Western growing regions. This follows July’s YTD high, which many expected to normalize. If trends hold, iceberg could approach $35/carton later this fall, potentially staying above $20 into early 2026. Avocados moved the opposite direction, with 48-count Hass hitting their lowest price since Jan 2024 despite crop transitions in Mexico and tariff chatter. Outlook: Lettuce pricing remains highly vulnerable to further weather or disease setbacks. Avocado prices should stay relatively low into year-end unless significant supply disruptions emerge.   Grains Grain markets stabilized after weeks of weakness, with modest w/w gains in corn, wheat, and soybean meal. Strong export demand helped offset forecasts for a larger U.S. corn yield—now expected at 184 bu/acre and possibly ending the year near 188. The WASDE report loomed over trading, keeping gains

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Potato prices held flat, but the pre-harvest rally may be topping out. Iceberg lettuce took a nosedive—down nearly 37%—while avocados and tomatoes behaved as expected. No major supply concerns yet. Outlook: Lettuce pricing should stabilize near its short-term floor. Avocados might bump up briefly in early August but should trend lower overall. Expect a quiet few weeks before produce pricing heats up again in late Q3.   Grains Grain prices were down again. The rising dollar and falling soybean prices dragged the market lower—even soybean oil dipped despite improved biofuel demand. Outlook: SBO demand for biofuels is recovering, but not enough to offset broader market weakness. Expect continued pressure unless grain exports surge or weather events shake things up.   Dairy Cheese block and barrel prices both rose slightly, while butter edged up $0.01/lb. Milk output is lighter in hot regions, but manufacturers are

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomato prices plateaued just shy of $15/carton after a five-week rally. However, possible tariffs on Mexican imports could raise prices again later this fall. Iceberg lettuce prices dropped nearly 15% week-over-week. Avocados are trending lower, but prices may briefly rise in August due to typical supply issues. Potatoes continue their slow, pre-harvest climb. Outlook: Expect a temporary break in tomato and lettuce prices before they edge higher again in Q4. Watch out for potential volatility in avocados, and plan ahead for continued slow increases in potato prices.   Grains Corn prices dropped 2.1% despite extreme heat in the Corn Belt. Traders are waiting for crop condition ratings to decline before reacting. Export sales are strong, but not yet enough to shift market sentiment. Soybean oil was the only grain product to see an increase last week. Outlook: Corn prices may remain soft until

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Avocados hit a new low at $45/carton, though supply concerns may push prices higher later this summer. Idaho potatoes continued their steady climb, and iceberg lettuce gained 7% w/w. Roma tomatoes rose again but are likely nearing a short-term plateau. Outlook: Expect modest produce price changes in the near term, with possible late-summer volatility in avocados. Iceberg and tomatoes could rally again as fall approaches.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet, with soybeans making the biggest move—rallying nearly 3% after initial bearish news was offset by strong crush data and biofuel optimism. Outlook: Watch for volatility in soybeans as the market responds to shifting demand signals and ongoing speculation around biofuel mandates. Other grains are expected to remain stable for now.   Dairy Butter, block cheese, and barrel cheese all dropped slightly last week. Despite tightening cream and milk supply in some regions,

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices have nearly tripled since mid-June—an unusual time for such a spike—and could climb further before cooling off. Idaho potatoes are also rallying ahead of harvest, up 40% in the last month. Expect price volatility to continue into fall, especially for lettuce. Outlook: Be prepared for additional produce swings, with lettuce and potatoes leading the charge. Strategic purchasing will be key through September.   Grains & Oils Grain markets dipped again last week, with corn taking the hardest hit. Record U.S. and Brazil crop projections, paired with strong export reports, couldn’t hold prices up. Despite high export volumes, optimism over trade deals didn’t materialize, adding pressure. Outlook: Corn exports remain strong, but oversupply continues to weigh on prices. Any new trade developments could change momentum, but for now, the trend remains downward.   Dairy Butter and cheese prices were mostly flat to