Insights / Commodities Report

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce remains the biggest produce cost concern, with 24-count iceberg prices climbing 374% over eight consecutive weeks and approaching $50 per carton. Roma tomatoes are also trending higher, while Hass avocado prices resumed their decline after briefly stabilizing near $30 per carton. Outlook: Lettuce and tomato pricing could remain elevated into November, while avocados offer near-term relief ahead of their typical first- and second-quarter price increases.   Grains Grain prices declined across the board after the USDA’s October reports pointed to a heavier supply outlook, particularly for corn. A higher corn yield estimate increased projected availability, and stronger demand forecasts were not enough to offset the added supply. Outlook: Corn prices are likely to remain under pressure unless export demand strengthens enough to absorb the larger projected supply.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed in their underlying drivers, with cheese blocks, nonfat dry milk

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The big five produce sectors were quiet again outside of lettuce. 24-count iceberg climbed another 30% week over week and has nearly quadrupled in price since the first week of August. One more week of gains like that would put iceberg back near $50, which is usually where these late-year rallies end, so a slowdown could come by mid-October. This year’s rally started a few weeks earlier than normal, though, so substantial relief may not come until well into November. Tomatoes eased back last week, which was a bit of a surprise, but the dip shouldn’t last more than another week or two. 48-count Hass avocados were basically level week over week. Outlook: Lettuce could slow by mid-October, but real relief may not arrive until well into November. Tomatoes still have upside between now and December, and avocados will hopefully stay level through the

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were fairly quiet overall, but iceberg lettuce remains the biggest mover. The 24-count iceberg average jumped 34.2% week over week to a 12-week high, signaling what looks like an earlier-than-usual seasonal rally. Tomatoes are also showing upside potential even though they were flat last week, with 25 lb. large romas potentially climbing to $30 per carton by the end of November. Avocados stabilized after a long decline, with 48-count Hass posting a slight weekly increase and now sitting back in the $20–$30 per carton range. Outlook: Expect lettuce and tomato markets to trend higher into mid- to late fall, while avocados should remain comparatively stable.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet outside of soybean meal, which has led recent gains in the soybean complex. December corn has been trading in the $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September crop report, and

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was generally steady, with a few items worth watching. 48-count Hass avocados continued to decline and are approaching their current year-to-date low, with likely support near $20 per carton. 24-count iceberg lettuce edged higher again and may be entering its seasonal late-year rally earlier than usual, leaving room for more upside into November. 25-lb. large Roma tomatoes are also expected to trend higher seasonally, though likely only toward $30 in November, well below the $40+ levels seen this spring. Outlook: Produce should remain relatively calm overall, with the best upside risk centered on lettuce and Roma tomatoes as fall progresses.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet outside of soybean meal, which has led recent gains in the soybean complex. December corn has been trading in the $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September crop report, and the new forecast puts the 2026/27

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was relatively steady last week, with no major disruptions across the top items being tracked. 48-count Hass avocados declined for a fifth straight week and are expected to stay under pressure through at least early October. 25 lb. large roma tomatoes and 24-count iceberg lettuce both continued to rise, though gains slowed considerably; from here into early November, both markets are expected to trend higher, but likely not back to the peaks seen earlier this year. Yellow and white onions may soften somewhat through November, while red onions are expected to stay fairly stable. Outlook: Produce markets look manageable overall, with avocado relief continuing while tomatoes and lettuce are likely to grind higher seasonally.   Grains Grain markets had another soft week, with Friday’s volatility shaping the final tone. Corn eased back after the USDA’s updated forecast came in close to expectations, including

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce trends were similar to the prior week, with avocados easing while lettuce and tomatoes continued to firm. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the remainder of their late-May gains and returning to near year-ago levels. At the same time, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, likely supported in part by recent heavy rain in key eastern U.S. growing regions. Avocados are already relatively inexpensive for early September, while tomatoes may be starting their typical seasonal climb a bit early. Outlook: Avocados may stabilize at low levels from here, while tomatoes still appear to have room to move higher into the fall.   Grains The grain rally paused last week after several weeks of strength, with wheat weakness spilling into corn and soybeans. Attention is now squarely on the upcoming

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce activity returned to more typical late-summer patterns as 48-count Hass avocado prices fell 15% week-over-week following the fading impact of Mexico’s USDA inspection suspensions. Potatoes appear to have ended their pre-harvest rally at levels similar to last year, while 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large Roma tomatoes saw modest bumps that reflect short-term bargain buying rather than a sustained trend. Outlook: Produce markets should remain relatively rangebound and stable through the fall, with major leafy green or tomato rallies unlikely before mid-September at the earliest.   Grains Grains closed the marketing year on a strong note, with wheat and corn surging 5% to 10% in a single week, while soybean oil climbed back above its 100-day moving average. Wheat’s aggressive rally is heavily tied to fading hopes for a resolution to Black Sea supply disruptions, pushing U.S. wheat export sales to nearly

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were generally stable, with iceberg lettuce standing out. 24-count iceberg lettuce rose 11% week over week, ending a seven-week losing streak after prices had fallen nearly 82% over that stretch. Even with the recent uptick, there are no major supply concerns at the moment, and the market is still behaving within normal seasonal expectations. Outlook: Lettuce prices may stay relatively contained near term, but this market bears watching as the usual late-year rally approaches in late September.   Grains Grain markets finished the week stronger, led by row crops. Preliminary results from Pro Farmer’s crop tour came in below expectations in most areas, with six of seven states reporting corn yield estimates falling more year over year than USDA projected in its August report. The largest corn-producing states, Iowa and Illinois, posted especially notable misses, while soybeans also underperformed expectations in Illinois,

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets stayed relatively calm last week, with most of the “big five” showing little movement, but avocados are the item operators should keep an eye on. Prices for 48-count Hass avocados were essentially flat week over week, though the USDA’s suspension of avocado inspections in Michoacán, Mexico could still create an August price bump if the issue is not resolved quickly. Potatoes continue to climb and are on pace to challenge 2025 highs as soon as this week, although that pre-harvest rally has been largely expected. Meanwhile, lettuce and tomatoes remained flat and, for now, appear stable through the rest of the month. Outlook: Produce should stay relatively steady overall, but avocados and potatoes carry the most upside risk in the near term.   Grains Grain markets were mostly quiet last week, aside from corn’s sharp rally following the August WASDE and Crop

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce he big-five produce items were largely quiet. 48-count Hass avocados flatlined after three prior weeks of gains; onions capped out after a longer uptrend. 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large roma tomatoes eased to new YTD lows, with iceberg falling below $10/carton for the first time since 2023. Outlook: Most produce markets are expected to remain stable to softer over the next several weeks, with limited upside potential.   Grains Grains markets quieted with most of the sector still under pressure but supported by technical levels. December soybean oil snapped a six-day losing streak at its 100-day moving average; soybeans leveled out amid trend support but face potential headwinds from expected heavy rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt. Outlook: Prices will likely stay volatile and dependent on crude oil trends, weather developments, and the pace of Chinese soybean purchases.   Dairy CME spot