Insights / Commodities Report

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 96

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes remain elevated around $40/carton with weak demand at that level. Lettuce rebounded off its price floor, and onions are seeing upward movement, especially reds. Outlook: Expect continued volatility. Tomatoes should ease once supply improves, while lettuce likely stays rangebound. Onion pricing may hold in the near term, but not all varieties have staying power.   Grains Wheat markets surged due to worsening drought conditions in key growing regions, with no meaningful rain in the forecast. Outlook: There’s still room for upward movement in wheat. If drought conditions persist, expect continued pressure on grain-related costs, especially baked goods and feed-driven proteins.   Dairy Cheese prices held steady, butter declined, and nonfat dry milk continues its aggressive rally. Milk supply is building seasonally, supporting production. Outlook: Cheese should remain relatively stable, but rising nonfat dry milk could quietly support pricing. Watch export activity, as global

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 95

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes remain volatile but showed signs of stabilizing last week. Avocado prices jumped due to temporary supply disruptions but are expected to ease. Broccoli saw a short-term rebound but is expected to decline again heading into May. Outlook: Expect continued volatility in key produce items. Build flexibility into menus and sourcing, especially for tomatoes and avocados.   Grains Grain markets trended downward, with improved weather conditions easing drought concerns and putting pressure on corn prices. Soybean meal was the exception, moving higher. Outlook: Lower grain prices could eventually ease feed costs, which may help stabilize protein pricing over time.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed. Cheese and butter softened slightly, while nonfat dry milk surged to a 12-year high, though it may be nearing a peak. Milk production is increasing seasonally, supporting overall supply. Outlook: Stable-to-soft pricing on core dairy items like cheese and

Vegetables

Commodities Report 94

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce 24-count iceberg lettuce prices declined toward a $10/carton floor last week. Conversely, 25 lb. large Roma tomatoes surged near $40/carton again, extending volatility expected through April until Mexican and Eastern U.S. volumes improve. 48-count Hass avocados reached a year-to-date high pre-Semana Santa but remain deflated versus norms. Demand collapses previously tempered tomato spikes, suggesting a similar pattern ahead. For dining alliances, tomato price swings challenge menu costing, while avocados offer moderate upside potential. Outlook: Tomato volatility persists until late-month supply ramps; avocados likely climb through June but cap near $40/carton absent disruptions.   Grains Grains showed mixed performance last week amid biofuel news, USDA planting/stocks reports, Middle East tensions, and weather, with soybean oil stalling post-March rally despite EPA’s strong 2026/27 biomass diesel mandate. Soybeans remained stable, unmoved by reports or EPA news, possibly awaiting delayed Trump-Xi trade talks in May. Crude oil weakness

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 93

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce prices continued to decline and are approaching the $10–$15 carton range, offering some seasonal relief. Tomatoes remain volatile, with supply gaps in the Eastern U.S. and limited support from Mexico keeping prices elevated. Meanwhile, 88-count California oranges are holding around $30 per carton, higher than typical for this time of year. Outlook: Expect continued volatility in tomatoes, while other produce items remain more stable with some upward pressure heading into summer.   Grains Grain markets gained momentum late in the week following new renewable fuel policy updates, with stronger-than-expected biofuel mandates boosting soybean oil demand. However, the delay of import penalties to 2028 has created uncertainty around long-term demand recovery. Outlook: Expect increased volatility as policy developments and biofuel demand continue to influence grain pricing.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed, with cheese blocks rising to $1.6305 and nonfat dry milk jumping

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 92

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Roma tomatoes (> $40/carton) and iceberg lettuce stabilize after volatility; tomatoes face ongoing supply issues from Mexico/East Coast, iceberg nears mid-January levels. Limes up 19% w/w, doubled since January—typical early March surge. Outlook: Tomatoes may see more turbulence with limited upside; iceberg trends sideways. Limes peak soon before summer decline—stock up for drink specials.   Grains Uptrends intact despite oil-linked volatility; wheat supported above $5.60 Chicago, corn holds gains pre-Plantings Report, soybeans outperform on acre shift expectations. Geopolitics (Iran) aids fundamentals. Outlook: Wheat/corn stay resilient barring de-escalation; soybeans gain acres, capping later upside. Watch Plantings Report for flour/corn oil menu impacts.   Dairy Quiet CME trading saw butter and cheese dip slightly, whey/NFDM rise; butter demand strong on exports (82% fat). Bulk butter trades near/at market, limiting downside. Outlook: Export-driven butter holds firm with minimal near-term drops. Cheese softness from low volume may ease,

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 91

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The lettuce market continued easing from its February highs, but tomatoes grabbed attention last week as large Roma prices surged more than 76% week over week to $37 per carton. The spike is tied to blight impacting crops in Mexico and freeze damage in the Eastern U.S., creating an unusually tight supply. Outlook: Tomato markets may remain volatile for several weeks as supply tightness works through the system. Operators may want to watch menu planning closely, as Roma prices could stay elevated until new supply stabilizes the market.   Grains Grain markets posted another strong week, led by soybean oil along with wheat, corn, and other row crops. Strength has been tied in part to rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer and biofuel markets. Outlook: If energy prices and global tensions continue to influence commodity markets, grains could see additional upward

Vegetables

Commodities Report 90

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Tomatoes and lettuce led produce volatility, with 25 lb. romas holding above $15/carton amid struggling Eastern supply. Iceberg lettuce gains are slowing, suggesting potential relief ahead. Broccoli climbed for a fourth consecutive week and could approach $50/carton if Mexico’s supply and quality issues persist. Outlook: Tomatoes may stay elevated longer than anticipated, while lettuce could begin easing in the coming weeks. Broccoli remains a watch item, though demand resistance may cap further upside if prices push too high.   Grains Soybeans and wheat extended their rally, while corn slipped slightly after failing to break above $4.40. Speculative fund activity appears to be contributing to recent strength, particularly in soybean oil, despite large stock levels and uncertainty around 2026 biofuel blending targets. Outlook: Grain markets may remain volatile as policy decisions and fund activity drive price swings. Operators should expect continued choppiness rather than clear

Meat poultry

Commodities Report 89

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce prices continued climbing, with iceberg nearing historically rare levels above $50/carton. Tomato markets softened slightly for the first time since mid-December, though freeze damage in the Eastern U.S. continues to support elevated pricing. Supply constraints remain the primary driver across both categories. Outlook: Tomato markets may stay elevated for another two to three weeks before easing toward late March. Iceberg pricing is unlikely to sustain extreme levels for long, as demand typically adjusts when prices spike.   Grains Soybeans continued to rally, lifting much of the grain complex, supported by reports of a potential U.S.–China trade truce extension. However, weaker export sales and strong Brazilian supply are creating skepticism. May soybean futures remain above $11. Outlook: While short-term support remains in place, global supply pressure could limit further upside. Farmer selling may trigger another pullback, though a significant drop below $11 appears unlikely

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report 88

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets continued to tighten, led by lettuce and tomatoes. Iceberg lettuce prices surged into the $40–$50 per carton range as harvest, yield, and shelf-life challenges persisted. Tomato pricing remained elevated due to ongoing cold-weather impacts, though improvement is expected as temperatures warm mid-February. Avocados bucked expectations, with 48-count Hass prices falling 9.2% week over week, despite seasonal trends pointing higher. Outlook: Lettuce pricing is expected to remain elevated and volatile in the short term. Tomato prices should begin easing as growing conditions improve, while avocados may remain flatter than usual into the first half of the year barring supply disruptions.   Grains Grain markets posted a positive week, led by the soybean complex. Optimism increased following trade announcements, including potential Chinese purchases of up to 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, in addition to 12 million metric tons agreed to previously. Soybean

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report 87

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets saw renewed strength, led by lettuce and tomatoes, both of which reversed higher following the prior week’s decline. Lettuce pricing increased as harvest and yield challenges emerged in Western growing regions, accelerating the end of its recent downturn. While iceberg pricing has moved higher, it remains below the extreme spring and summer peaks that often exceed $40–$50 per carton. Tomato markets strengthened as cold temperatures persisted across the eastern U.S., with pricing supported despite steady supply from Mexico. Outlook: Lettuce pricing may continue to move higher through late Q1, with additional upside risk into early Q2. Tomato prices are expected to remain firm while cold weather conditions persist.   Grains Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week, while wheat prices rallied briefly. Initial gains were driven by concerns over cold weather in U.S. winter wheat regions