Insights / Commodities Report

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Iceberg lettuce fell almost 20% after an 11-week surge, while avocados climbed as Mexico’s harvest stoppage reaches the U.S. Outlook: Lettuce should settle near $20 into early 2027, but avocados have little room to fall and may reach $30.   Grains Grains slipped below key support last week, with strong crop yields weighing on soybeans and December corn barely holding $4.40. Outlook: Corn could drift toward $4 and January soybeans toward $11.50 if the USDA confirms big yields.   Dairy Cheese and butter markets fell last week, with blocks down nearly 8%, as holiday butter buying disappoints and U.S. prices stay high for export. Outlook: Near-term dairy risk is to the downside as overpriced U.S. products temper export demand.   Beef Beef production is down 5% from last year and cattle futures hit nine-week lows; Choice cutout slipped while ribs set a record. Outlook:

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Large roma tomatoes in 25-pound packs surged more than 44% in two weeks, raising the stakes for restaurants serving sandwiches, salads and tomato-heavy dishes. Iceberg lettuce paused its rally, but Mexican avocado harvesting disruptions added another supply concern. Explore Dining Alliance produce market insights to plan purchasing conversations, seasonal specials and practical substitutions before a few everyday ingredients put more pressure on restaurant food costs. Outlook: Tomatoes and iceberg lettuce retain near-term upside risk, while the unresolved Mexican harvest stoppage could quickly push avocado prices higher.   Grains U.S. corn export sales for 2026/27 totaled 23.5 million metric tons, nearly 34% below the prior year versus USDA expectations for a 4% decline. That demand gap matters when assessing the direction of grain markets, even if restaurant invoice prices respond differently. Explore Dining Alliance commodity insights to understand the signals behind grain-related food costs before

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce remains a major pressure point as western growing problems continue, and large Roma tomatoes jumped 20.6% in the reporting week. Potatoes also edged higher, although new-crop storage supplies should eventually bring some relief. Outlook: Lettuce and tomato costs are likely to stay elevated near term, so review portions, substitutions and supplier quotes.   Grains Grain markets weakened, led by wheat, while soybean oil held relatively steady. Reports of possible Black Sea shipping negotiations raised the prospect of more wheat reaching global buyers, adding pressure to an already soft market. Outlook: Wheat could face further downside if trade flows improve, but do not assume flour or bakery invoices will immediately follow futures.   Dairy Cheese and butter moved higher, with cheese blocks reaching a one-year weekly-average high. Milk production is expanding, but competition for milk is limiting cheesemaking supplies; strong demand is also keeping

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce costs remain a mixed bag: iceberg lettuce is at its highest since late 2022, tomatoes are rising, and potatoes unexpectedly jumped. Hass avocados moved lower again. Keep lettuce-heavy menu items under review, and check whether avocado savings can offset some of the pressure elsewhere. Outlook: Lettuce and tomatoes likely stay elevated near term, while potatoes should ease after harvest and avocado prices appear close to stabilizing.   Grains Grain markets moved lower again, with corn holding closer to steady than the rest. Strong export sales have not yet removed the risk of another corn-price drop. For operators, this is a market to monitor rather than a reason to assume immediate savings on grain-based purchases. Outlook: Corn could slide toward $4.40 if $4.80 fails to hold, though export demand and tight global supplies may provide support.   Dairy Most spot dairy markets rose, with

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Lettuce remains the biggest produce cost concern, with 24-count iceberg prices climbing 374% over eight consecutive weeks and approaching $50 per carton. Roma tomatoes are also trending higher, while Hass avocado prices resumed their decline after briefly stabilizing near $30 per carton. Outlook: Lettuce and tomato pricing could remain elevated into November, while avocados offer near-term relief ahead of their typical first- and second-quarter price increases.   Grains Grain prices declined across the board after the USDA’s October reports pointed to a heavier supply outlook, particularly for corn. A higher corn yield estimate increased projected availability, and stronger demand forecasts were not enough to offset the added supply. Outlook: Corn prices are likely to remain under pressure unless export demand strengthens enough to absorb the larger projected supply.   Dairy Dairy markets were mixed in their underlying drivers, with cheese blocks, nonfat dry milk

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce The big five produce sectors were quiet again outside of lettuce. 24-count iceberg climbed another 30% week over week and has nearly quadrupled in price since the first week of August. One more week of gains like that would put iceberg back near $50, which is usually where these late-year rallies end, so a slowdown could come by mid-October. This year’s rally started a few weeks earlier than normal, though, so substantial relief may not come until well into November. Tomatoes eased back last week, which was a bit of a surprise, but the dip shouldn’t last more than another week or two. 48-count Hass avocados were basically level week over week. Outlook: Lettuce could slow by mid-October, but real relief may not arrive until well into November. Tomatoes still have upside between now and December, and avocados will hopefully stay level through the

Vegetables

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce markets were fairly quiet overall, but iceberg lettuce remains the biggest mover. The 24-count iceberg average jumped 34.2% week over week to a 12-week high, signaling what looks like an earlier-than-usual seasonal rally. Tomatoes are also showing upside potential even though they were flat last week, with 25 lb. large romas potentially climbing to $30 per carton by the end of November. Avocados stabilized after a long decline, with 48-count Hass posting a slight weekly increase and now sitting back in the $20–$30 per carton range. Outlook: Expect lettuce and tomato markets to trend higher into mid- to late fall, while avocados should remain comparatively stable.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet outside of soybean meal, which has led recent gains in the soybean complex. December corn has been trading in the $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September crop report, and

Meat poultry

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was generally steady, with a few items worth watching. 48-count Hass avocados continued to decline and are approaching their current year-to-date low, with likely support near $20 per carton. 24-count iceberg lettuce edged higher again and may be entering its seasonal late-year rally earlier than usual, leaving room for more upside into November. 25-lb. large Roma tomatoes are also expected to trend higher seasonally, though likely only toward $30 in November, well below the $40+ levels seen this spring. Outlook: Produce should remain relatively calm overall, with the best upside risk centered on lettuce and Roma tomatoes as fall progresses.   Grains Grain markets were fairly quiet outside of soybean meal, which has led recent gains in the soybean complex. December corn has been trading in the $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September crop report, and the new forecast puts the 2026/27

Fresh fish and seafood platter

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce was relatively steady last week, with no major disruptions across the top items being tracked. 48-count Hass avocados declined for a fifth straight week and are expected to stay under pressure through at least early October. 25 lb. large roma tomatoes and 24-count iceberg lettuce both continued to rise, though gains slowed considerably; from here into early November, both markets are expected to trend higher, but likely not back to the peaks seen earlier this year. Yellow and white onions may soften somewhat through November, while red onions are expected to stay fairly stable. Outlook: Produce markets look manageable overall, with avocado relief continuing while tomatoes and lettuce are likely to grind higher seasonally.   Grains Grain markets had another soft week, with Friday’s volatility shaping the final tone. Corn eased back after the USDA’s updated forecast came in close to expectations, including

Charcuterie board with meats and cheese

Commodities Report

Alerts & What’s Trending   Produce Produce trends were similar to the prior week, with avocados easing while lettuce and tomatoes continued to firm. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the remainder of their late-May gains and returning to near year-ago levels. At the same time, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, likely supported in part by recent heavy rain in key eastern U.S. growing regions. Avocados are already relatively inexpensive for early September, while tomatoes may be starting their typical seasonal climb a bit early. Outlook: Avocados may stabilize at low levels from here, while tomatoes still appear to have room to move higher into the fall.   Grains The grain rally paused last week after several weeks of strength, with wheat weakness spilling into corn and soybeans. Attention is now squarely on the upcoming